Putin’s re-election is certain but support may be slipping

Voter turnout could affect mandate

NIZHNY NOVGOROD, Russia — With the hours slipping away until Russia’s presidential election Sunday, Valentina A. Aristova, a Communist Party die-hard in the northern city of Nizhny Novgorod, rose before sunrise to hand out campaign literature at a Volga River shipyard.

Bundled in a dark fur coat and hat, Mrs. Aristova, a matronly English teacher, reflected on the two twists in what is expected to be a romp by President Vladimir Putin toa fourth presidential term.

First, support for Mr. Putin in large cities has been uneven or even declining in favor of Pavel Grudinin, a wealthy farmer turned Communist Party candidate, despite state television coverage of Mr. Putin bordering on a personality cult.

“People come home, they turn on the TV and they are told who is the most important person, who is the best person,” said Mrs. Aristova, who has worked on Communist Party campaigns for 27 years.

Second, even with the Kremlin’s laser focus on turnoutas a mandate for Mr. Putin, efforts to ensure participation have not altered widespread expectations for a mediocre showing given thelack of mystery.

“Putin fears being shamed before the whole world if the turnout is below the baseboard,” said Mrs. Aristova, who like many election veterans expects turnout in major cities to be about 50 percent, far below the 60 to 70 percent a presidential race usually attracts.

In general, the quality of Russian polling is low, marred by the propensity of respondents to anticipate what the pollster wants to hear.

Government polls amplify that distortion, and the Kremlin has silenced independent national pollsters. Nevertheless, analysts say that over time they provide a measure of the trend of opinion.

The newspaper Vedomosti caused a minor stir in early March by noting that Mr. Putin’s ratings in Moscow and St. Petersburg had dropped 12 percentage points between mid-January and mid-February, to about 57 percent.

The state-controlled pollster, the Russian Public Opinion Research Center, claimed the newspaper was using the wrong data, and doubled down on its prediction that Mr. Putin would get about 70 percent of the vote with a turnout of around 70 percent.

Mr. Grudinin would have a shot in a fair race, Mrs. Aristova said. She then reeled off a list of dirty tricks she has seen in past elections, including an unannounced polling station in a sprawling local cemetery. “Dead people selected the government,” she added.