Changes ahead
What’s what in topsy-turvy, remapped world of Pa. politics
In Western Pennsylvania lately, politics has mirrored the make-believe.
Two candidates poured millions of dollars into a U.S. House seat that won’t exist after this year. The apparent winner, Democrat Conor Lamb, won’t live in the district anymore after a redrawn map takes effect midway through his shortened term. And neither will his opponent, Republican Rick Saccone, who — along with Mr. Lamb — has already started a bid for an entirely different seat ahead of November’s midterm elections.
“You can’t make this up,” said Terry Madonna, a veteran pollster from Franklin & Marshall College. “If you were writing fiction, you couldn’t come up with this.”
Alas, as filing petitions for House candidates are due to the state Tuesday, the local political landscape has changed. Voters in the May 15 primary elections will likely notice different matchups for different seats representing different locations, prompted by a redrawing of congressional boundaries by the state Supreme Court.
Mr. Saccone will run in the newly redrawn 14th District, even though his campaign made it clear Monday that he hasn’t given up on the 18th. While waiting “for all of the votes to be counted” in that district’s special election, Mr. Saccone collected the required 1,000 signatures to file for his new candidacy, top Saccone aide Bob Branstetter said.
The seat will be concentrated in Greene, Washington and Westmoreland counties, and is shaping up to be even more GOP-friendly than the 18th as a swath of Allegheny County lands in another district. Donald Trump carried this area by 25 points in November 2016, which should be encouraging news to Republicans worried about Mr. Lamb’s win in similar territory.
Running in a more Republican district should give Mr. Saccone no worries about sticking with his cultural conservative views, Mr. Madonna said. But it appears he will face a challenge in the primary from state Sen. Guy Reschenthaler, who filed his signatures Monday. Mr. Reschenthaler, whom Mr. Saccone beat out for the Republican nomination in the 18th, lives just outside of the new district’s boundaries, but that might not mean much, considering the map is in flux. Candidates are not obliged to live in the district where they run.
Although analysts say the 14th will most likely be decided by who wins the Republican primary, a number of Democrats will likely bid for the seat, too. Tom Prigg, who was preparing to challenge incumbent Republican Keith Rothfus in the current 12th District, will join emergency physician Bob Solomon as declared candidates in the 14th. Dr. Solomon lost the Democratic nomination to Mr. Lamb last year.
The seat is listed as safely Republican in a recent analysis by the highly regarded Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball.
“In the fall, whoever wins the Republican primary should win, but we may have said that in the 18th District, too,” Mr. Madonna said. “So the best way to look at this is a very unpredictable election cycle, in which there’s a Democratic wave coming. The only debate is the size of the wave.”
Hoping to ride that wave further is Mr. Lamb, who intends to run in the newly redrawn 17th District. But although he has momentum and newfound name recognition, if he wins the Democratic primary, he will likely face a seasoned Republican incumbent in Mr. Rothfus.
Mr. Rothfus, a Republican who was twice reelected in a landslide to the current 12th District, filed his signatures and will play defense in a district that will look quite different. It will no longer include portions of Cambria, Lawrence, Somerset and Westmoreland counties, but will retain Beaver while adding swaths of Allegheny and Butler counties.
The new district, according to Democrats, is much more conducive to challengers. The field also includes Erin McClelland — who won the Democratic nod to challenge Mr. Rothfus the last two cycles — as well as attorney Beth Tarasi and consultant and Democratic activist Ray Linsenmayer. Educator and graduate student Aaron Anthony dropped out of the race late Monday afternoon, endorsing Mr. Lamb.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball ranks the 17th District as a toss-up.
“Before the change was made, we wouldn’t have even been talking about this in Rothfus’ old district,” Mr. Madonna said, referring to the likelihood of a close race.
Pennsylvania’s 18th District will no longer be synonymous with the special election that captivated most of the country. It will switch names with the current 14th District, which is now held by incumbent Democrat Mike Doyle, and round out some of the Pittsburgh area.
Mr. Doyle isn’t expected to face many challengers. The only other candidate who filed as of Monday night was Janis C. Brooks, a former pastor and nonprofit founder.