Rise in cap to help, but not much

History says GM will deal at draft

NHL commissioner Gary Bettman said Wednesday that the salary cap for the 2018-19 season will fall somewhere between $79.5 million and $80 million.

All things considered, it could’ve been a lot worse for Penguins general manager Jim Rutherford.

Relying on the industry standard when it comes to predicting salaries for restricted free agents, the Penguins would have a small — but somewhat workable — amount of breathing room should they do nothing before the start of free agency.

Before we dive too deeply into that, a couple of caveats are in order.

One, Rutherford avoiding any sort of action over the next few days at the NHL draft isn’t likely.

Also, the projections used — by Hockey Graphs editor Matt Cane, widely recognized as the most reliable available — tend to be on the conservative size, meaning actual negotiations could and should consume more of the Penguins cap space.

But as Rutherford meets with his RFAs and tries to hammer out deals with players and agents who lack negotiating power, here’s what we can spitball about the Penguins roster for 2018-19:game

• We’re going to assume the following line combinations, which take into account the idea that Daniel Sprong — as Rutherford wants — will be on the NHL team.

Forwards: GuentzelCrosby-Sprong; HagelinMalkin-Kessel; Sheary-Brassard-AstonReese-Sheahan-Rust; Extra: Kuhnhackl; Defensemen: Dumoulin-Letang; MaattaSchultz; Oleksiak-Ruhwedel; Extra: Hunwick; Goalies: Murray, DeSmith

• The positional breakdown there looks like this: Forwards $47,464,145, defensemen $25,493,053 and goaltenders $ 4,425,000. That’s a grand total of $77,384,198, which leaves Rutherford $2,117,802 and $2,617-802 in available cap space.

• You’ll notice a couple of things here. One, there’s only 22 players. Good chance the Penguins could elect to carry 23, which would further reduce cap space.

Secondly, this model assumes that Casey DeSmith remains the backup and not Tristan Jarry. If the Penguins go with Jarry, according to Cane’s projections, it would cost them an additional $509,461, as Jarry is projected to make $1,184,461.

• This model also doesn’t include Dominik Simon, who was given a really, really long leash in the playoffs. It’s sort of tough to imagine him not getting a shot to make the NHL club. Simon, according to Cane, would cost $791,202.

• The numbers here that can change involve Sprong ($719,126), Riley Sheahan ($1,796,058), Bryan Rust ($2,236,758), Tom Kuhnhackl ($753,036) and Jamie Oleksiak ($1,659,720). Everybody else’s 2018-19 contracts are known — assuming they’re on the team.

• If the Penguins decide to do something long term with Rust — Rutherford has told the Post-Gazette he would like to this summer, cap-permitting of course — then he’ll gobble up that extra cap space by himself.

The takeaway here is pretty much what we’ve known all along: Expect Rutherford to do something.

Not only is he already one of the league’s most aggressive GMs to begin with, but this sort of space doesn’t afford Rutherford much flexibility.

Remember, too, that he likes to keep around $1 million as a buffer.

Should Rutherford want to sign a legitimate third pairing defenseman, an everyguy who could help the Penguins keep Kris Letang’s minutes in check, it’s unrealistic to expect that price tag to be $1 million to $1.5 million.

Take a look at the NHL defensemen — not entry-level guys such as Boston’s Charlie McAvoy who simply outperform their contract —Hornqvist; who earned about that much last season, and it’s not pretty.

The Blues paid former Penguins defenseman Robert Bortuzzo $1.15 million for four goals and 13 points over 71 games. Toronto had Roman Polak for $1.1 million and got a whopping two goals and 12 points, never mind the lack of speed.

Colin Miller from Vegas ans Arizona's Kevin Connauton were the best of the bunch. Miller had 10 goals and 41 points in 81 games, while Connauton scored 11 times in 73 games on a bad team. Both made $1 million.

But relying on those sort of plus-performances probably isn’t something the Penguins should do, which is why if Rutherford truly wants to improve his defense, there likely will be a corresponding move to send a few dollars out.