A man-made crisis
As Venezuela tumbles, neighbors should act
Economic crises precede human crises, which in turn precede security crises. If the horrific suffering in Venezuela is not alone reason enough to act, then the threat of what might follow should be.
The International Monetary Fund warned this week that inflation in Venezuela may hit 1 million percent by the end of the year. If its estimates are correct, it would mean that the country’s economy has shrunk by half since 2013.
Think about that: Half its annual income will have disappeared in half a decade. This from the country with the largest proven oil reserves in the world.
Bad fortune befalls many nations. But in the case of Venezuela, the cause is clear — namely, two decades of chronic mismanagement and creeping authoritarianism from a government that was first led by Hugo Chavez and now continues under his successor, Nicolas Maduro.
The result of all this is that an economic crisis has now become a humanitarian one. Huge swaths of the population can’t afford food or medicine, disease is spreading, and crime is spiking. Infant mortality rose 30 percent in 2016 alone.
Despite this, Mr. Maduro — who was re-elected during May in a poll deemed illegitimate by multiple groups, including the Lima Group of Latin American nations, Canada, the U.S., and the EU — continues to persist with his deluded agenda and his attempts to blame the U.S. for Venezuela’s problems.
The human tragedy in Venezuela may well soon become a security crisis, too: Over 10 percent of Venezuelans have left the country, mostly to neighbors. As in Europe, rapid immigration of that sort can spark unrest.
The Trump administration has drawn on the previous government’s playbook, using economic penalties — including sanctions and asset seizures that target members of Mr. Maduro’s inner circle — as its weapon of choice against the Venezuelan government.
Despite this, the human suffering continues.
It’s time to turn up the heat. If the case of Cuba has told us anything, it’s that waiting for a stubborn regime to collapse under the combined weight of sanctions and its own ineptitude could take decades — if it even succeeds at all.
The U.S. is better off not leading efforts against Mr. Maduro; after decades of adventurism in the region, U.S. actions are first regarded with suspicion. And it surely doesn’t mean turning to military intervention, despite President Donald Trump’s comment last summer that “we have many options for Venezuela, including a possible military option, if necessary.” That rattled nerves but has thankfully faded from view.
Instead, let the Organization of American States drive events. It has already tried to do so: In June, member states were three votes short of passing a resolution strongly condemning Mr. Maduro’s plans to begin drafting a new authoritarian constitution.
The U.S. can support the OAS in its efforts by using its bilateral relationships with dissenters like Haiti and Grenada to muster up a majority. It can also coordinate with the E.U., Canada and other allies to ensure their collective sanctions regime remains strong and unified.
Economic crises precede human crises, which in turn precede security crises. If the horrific suffering in Venezuela is not alone reason enough to act, then the threat of what might follow should be.