U.S. economy grew at rate of 4.1 percent
Strongest quarterly figure since 2014
WASHINGTON — The U.S. economy accelerated last quarter at an annual rate of 4.1 percent, the government estimated Friday, as consumers spent tax-cut money, businesses stepped up investment, and exporters rushed to ship their goods ahead of retaliatory tariffs.
President Donald Trump said he was thrilled with what he called an “amazing” growth rate — the strongest quarterly figure since 2014 — and said it wasn’t “a onetime shot.” But most economists took issue with that forecast, saying the pace of growth in the April-June quarter won’t likely last.
The Commerce Department said the gross domestic product — the total output of goods and services produced in the United States — posted its best showing since a 4.9 percent annual increase in the third quarter of 2014.
Mr. Trump, who has repeatedly attacked the Obama administration’s economic record, had pledged during the 2016 presidential race to double annual economic growth to 4 percent or more. And at a White House appearance Friday with his top economic advisers and Vice President Mike Pence, the president boasted that “we’ve accomplished an economic turnaround of historic proportions.”
He predicted that the economy would fare “extraordinarily well” in the current July-September quarter and that growth for 2018 as a whole wouldbe the best in 13 years.
But forecasters cautioned that the April-June pace was due mainly, though not entirely, to temporary factors. Most analysts are forecasting that growth this year could reach 3 percent, which would be the best since a 3.5 percent gain in 2005. But many think the annual 4.1 percent growth rate last quarter is likely the high point for any one quarter. Many think annual growth in the second half of this year will be 2.5 percentto 3 percent.
“We believe quarter two will represent a growth peak as the boost from tax cuts fades, global growth moderates, inflation rises, the Fed tightens monetary policy and trade protectionism looms over the economy,” said Gregory Daco, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics.
The latest GDP figure was nearly double the 2.2 percent growth rate in the first quarter, which was revised up from a previous estimate of 2 percent annual growth.
Consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of economic activity, reached a 4 percent annual growth rate after a lackluster 0.5 percent rate in the first quarter. Consumers began spending their higher take-home pay on autos and other big-ticket items, spurred by the $1.5 trillion tax cut Mr. Trump pushed through Congress in December.
Another key factor that bolstered growth was a rush by exporters of soybeans and other products to move their shipments to other countries before retaliatory tariffs in response to Mr. Trump’s tariffs on imports took effect. Exports surged at a 9.3 percent annual rate in the second quarter, while imports grew at a scant 0.5 percent rate.
Mr. Trump called the narrowing of the trade deficit “one of the biggest wins in the report.”
The narrowing trade deficit added a full percentage point to growth last quarter, though economists have expressed concern that a fullblown trade war between the United States and China, the world’s two biggest economies, will hurt growth in both countries.