DAVID M. SHRIBMAN ON THE MIDTERM ELECTIONS

These factors could help determine America’s political future for years to come

Every four years, political professionals assess the landscape and gird for the final push toward the midterm congressional elections. With Donald Trump in the White House and with small Republican margins of control in both chambers of Congress, and with Democrats lusting for re-venge, these contests are espe-cially critical. And every midterm midsum-mer, different political elements rise to the surface. This year is es-pecially rich in unknowns. Here are the factors that may influ-ence the November contests and shape the political landscape into the next decade: • The president. Is it or isn't it? That's the question. If it is a refer-endum on Mr. Trump, then it is one of those rare midterm elec-tions where national issues pre-dominate and the performance of the chief executive matters. If it isn't, then it is a series of local elections where compelling can-didates (Conor Lamb in south-western Pennsylvania) can go against expectations and win contests in districts Mr. Trump carried decisively only 24 months earlier. But the president is not the only spectral figure hanging over these contests. Another is Rep. Nancy Pelosi, the former Demo-cratic House speaker the Repub-licans have demonized into a modern-day Emma Goldman ready to wreck the capitalist sys-tem and wreak havoc on domes-tic tranquility. Mr. Lamb — and Danny O'Connor, the Democrat who, earlier this month, nearly won the last special election of the year, in the Columbus, Ohio, area — both vowed to oppose Ms. Pelosi as speaker. It's not clear whether that message sounded above the din of the anti-Pelosi drumbeat in both districts. • The economy. Nobody's com-plaining about the financial mar-kets, and though the current surge of economic growth began under Barack Obama, Mr. Trump isn't trampling on prece-dent to claim credit Bill Clinton did so with an economic recovery that probably began under George H.W. Bush. And you can bet that if we were in recession, the president's critics would blame him even if the an-tecedents to the crisis were rooted in the Obama years. So though the verdict is out over the Trump tax cuts, and though those reductions haven't pierced the public consciousness, the economy presents an overall advantage to the Republicans. There is a dark cloud, besides the persistent notion that booms don't last forever: Consumer prices have risen 2.9 percent over the last year, an emblem of growth but perhaps a precursor of the curse recalled by older vot-ers but unknown to younger ones — inflation. • Is there a Blue Wave? Anyone who grew up on the coast knows that what might look like a big wave in the medium distance sometimes turns out to be a rip-ple, with little undertow. Demo-crats see a tsunami consuming all the Republican lawmakers in its path. Wearing rosy glasses and on the lookout for a Red Wave, Republicans say they see no blue swell, though some pri-vately fear a riptide — one that rips apart the Trump coalition. Here's an intriguing fact: The four biggest House losses since 1934 by the party holding the White House have come under Democratic presidents (Franldin Roosevelt, 71 seats in 1938, 55 in 1942), Mr. Obama (63 seats in 2010) and Mr. Clinton (52 seats in 1994). Tied for fifth place are two Republicans (Dwight Eisen-hower in 1958 and Richard Nixon/Gerald Ford in 1974, both with 48 seats). Note this: Mr. Obama's approval ratings when he lost 63 seats are within the margin of error of the approval ratings Mr. 'frump has now. • Who are this fall's critical swing voters — and will they be the same for the presidential elec-tion in 2020? There's a strong sug-gestion that the 2016 presidential election was shaped by rural and working white men, the lat-ter group a onetime pillar of the FDR New Deal coalition but vul-nerable to entreaties from tough-talking Republicans like Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan and Mr. Trump. And yet there is every indica-tion that both parties believe the power swing in these midterms are suburban voters, particularly women. (Warning A lot of experts said the same thing about the 2016 presidential election and were wrong) Democrats nearly won that Ohio special-election dis-trict chock AZ of suburban voters. There are nearly six dozen House seats currently held by Republi-cans that are less reliably Demo-cratic than the Ohio district the GOP candidate, Tray Balderson, won by about 1,503 votes out of more than 203,000 votes cast But the GOP can't pour hundreds of thousands of dollars — several million, in the Balderson case —into every race, and Mr. Trump, though he plans six or seven days of campaigning a week, can't in-tervene in every tight contest. The difficulty is that each dis-trict in a set of midterm congres-sional elections has a different set of critics]. voters. In Wisconsin last week, where Leah Vukmir won the GOP pri-mary, the swingers were subur-banites outside Milwaukee. But in Georgia, where an African-American woman is the Demo-cratic candidate for @slam". black turnout will be a huge factor; it will be a minor factor in western and central Connecticut, where another black woman, Jahana Hayes, won a Democratic primary last week in a district with a black population of about 6 percent. In West Virginia, where Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin is seeking another term, Trump-style miners and workers are critical. But there won’t be many of them in the eastern New Hampshire district representing perhaps the best Republican opportunity pick up a seat held by a (retiring) Democrat.

• How do the local candidates lean? This is an important question for both parties, perhaps more important in the long run than the actual tally on Election Day — unless, of course, there is a big Blue Wave and Mr. Trump finds himself in danger of impeachment. (Even if the GOP loses control of the Senate, there’s little danger of the president being forced from office by a two-thirds vote of that chamber.)

For the Republicans, the question is the win/loss record for oldfashioned Republicans and for conservatives — the old free-traders and deficit hawks — versus the performance of Republicans who have embraced the president. For the Democrats, the question is how those who lean left, like Ms. Hayes and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who in June won a stunning New York congressional primary upset, fare versus those who, like Mr. Lamb, tread a moderate third way. Right now we don’t know the profile of the post-Trump Republicans — or the post-Trump Democrats. And though nobody has 2020 vision, some hints should come this November.