Wolverines defense poses problems
Nittany Lions will need breaks, turnovers and some McSorley magic
Penn State will be a double-digit underdog when it ventures into Michigan Stadium at 3:45 p.m. Saturday.
With good reason, too.
After all, the Wolverines are 7-1 and ranked fifth in The Associated Press Top 25, while No. 14 Penn State has struggled to put together 60 solid minutes, despite being 6-2.
Nonetheless, there’s a pretty obvious path to an upset victory for the Nittany Lions.
Unfortunately for them, however, there’s no evidence that suggests they’re about to be the beneficiaries of divine intervention.
That means Penn State likely will have to confront this challenge without outside assistance, but, even though it won’t be easy — and certainly isn’t likely — the Nittany Lions could give themselves a chance to knock off the Wolverines if they:
• Hold Michigan running back Karan Higdon to fewer than 100 yards.
He has gained 100 or more yards six times this season — including all five games against Big Ten Conference opponents — and Michigan has won all of them. In fact, the Wolverines are 11-0 all time when Higdon’s total on the ground reaches triple-figures.
For the season, he’s averaging 118.7 yards per game, eighth-most in Football Bowl Subdivision.
• Limit third downs on offense, and convert as many as possible.
That would be the objective against any opponent, of course, but it’s particularly important against Michigan because the Wolverines can dominate time of possession if given the opportunity — they rank seventh in FBS, at 34:17 per game — and that would allow them to wear down a Penn State defense that has been on the field for far too many snaps this season.
It’s equally important, for the same reason, that the Nittany Lions prevent Michigan from converting a high percentage of its third-down plays, which obviously would allow its offense to remain on the field. For the season, Michigan is 60 for 125 on third and fourth downs, while Penn State’s defense has given up 55 first downs on 157 third- and fourth-down plays.
• Keep quarterback Trace McSorley upright and healthy.
It’s hard to say how much, if at all, McSorley will be hampered by the right knee injury that forced him to sit out several series a week ago against Iowa, but a strong performance from him is imperative if Penn State hopes to compete with the Wolverines.
McSorley declined to divulge whether he plans to wear a knee brace Saturday, but if his mobility is impeded even a little, Michigan’s outstanding defensive line could make his life more miserable — and painful — than it might be under normal circumstances.
The Nittany Lions offensive line will have the burden of not only giving McSorley’s receivers time to get open and McSorley time to deliver the ball to them, but to open running lanes against a defense that has been giving up just 97.1 rushing yards per game.
In fact, Michigan, which was off last weekend, allowed just 94 yards of total offense in a 21-7 victory against Michigan State in its most recent game.
• Recover a fumble or two, for a change. Michigan doesn’t put the ball on the ground very often; it has fumbled nine times in its first eight games and recovered six of those.
Penn State, meanwhile, has forced 18 fumbles but ended up with the ball just four times. That’s a dismal recovery rate of 22.22 percent that ties the Nittany Lions for 123rd place in the national rankings.
They will have to be opportunistic to beat a team of Michigan’s caliber, and that includes things such as coming up with fumbles and holding onto potential interceptions that hit defenders in the hands, also an issue at times this season.