Risky business for Steelers, Bell no matter how it falls
Few predicted the Le’Veon Bell scenario would play out this way, including the Steelers, who misread it from the beginning.
Assuming, however, that the latest report from ESPN is correct and Bell chooses not to return to them by Tuesday and forfeits the rest of the season, what might that mean to him and them?
Bell will risk the same thing that happened to a namesake, Todd Bell, along with Al Harris. Those two were starters on the 1984 Chicago Bears defense. Bell was a Pro Bowl safety and Harris a linebacker.
The pair held out the entire 1985 season before there even was free agency and franchise tags. That
season would become magical in Chicago, one of the most famous in history. Led by one of the NFL’s great defenses that obviously did not miss either starter, the Bears went 15-1 and breezed to a Super Bowl win. That team, coached by Mike Ditka, is celebrated in Chicago to this day.
Both players returned to play for the Bears in 1986 and beyond. Harris played through 1990, ending with the Philadelphia Eagles. Bell also finished with the Eagles, in 1989. Neither earned a Super Bowl ring and became a mere footnote in Chicago.
That is the risk Le’Veon Bell would take by staying away, that the Steelers will go on to win a Super Bowl without him. There are other risks we will note later.
There are risks for the Steelers as well.
Bell’s absence has been nothing but clear sailing for them so far. Their 6-2-1 record is second best in the AFC, on pace for a firstround bye in the playoffs if they can maintain it.
They have recouped more than half of Bell’s $14,544,000 salary, and, if he does not report by Tuesday, the Steelers will get it all back, minus the amount they paid to a player who took his spot on the roster. Stevan Ridley earns a $790,000 salary but counts $630,000 on their cap this season because he signed a veteran minimum salary contract. Rookie Jaylen Samuels has a $480,000 salary. One of those players would not be here if Bell were. Either way, the Steelers will have saved around $14 million in real money and on their salary cap that they can roll over into 2019.
It’s been a great deal for the Steelers so far because James Conner picked up where Bell left off and has been even more productive, especially scoring touchdowns. But after Ben Roethlisberger, Conner would be the player the Steelers can least afford to lose.
Without Conner, Ridley and/or Samuels would play, and neither has shown an ability to fill that role. Without Conner, the 2018 Steelers would become the 1976 Steelers without Franco Harris and Rocky Bleier, the 2001 Steelers with an injured and ineffective Jerome Bettis, the 2011 Steelers with Isaac Redman starting for injured Rashard Mendenhall in the Tim Tebow game, the 2014 Steelers with Ben Tate starting for an injured Bell, or the 2015 Steelers with Fitz Toussaint starting for an injured Bell and DeAngelo Williams, or the 2016 Steelers after Bell left the AFC title game early with a groin injury in New England.
The Steelers never have won a Super Bowl with subpar replacement parts at running back. That’s why Conner becomes so important to their quest. It is a different game, from 10 years ago when they last won it. They have a dynamic passing game, but it would be diminished without a ground threat, and defenses would no longer respect the run.
Every team faces the prospect of losing key players to injuries that would derail them as contenders, so the Steelers are not in an unusual position. It just would have been so much better for them if Bell had reported and, while expensive, served as one fat insurance policy against such an injury to Conner.
They could have avoided the unsettling experience of Bell’s 3½-month ordeal by not misreading his plan back in March, although to be fair it appears he never had a set plan for this season.
The Steelers could have put the non-exclusive franchise tag on Bell. That would have allowed him to shop himself to other NFL teams and sign an offer. The Steelers could have matched it or let him go and receive two first-round draft picks. By doing that, it might have shown Bell he wasn’t worth as much as he thought. At the very least, they could have matched a contract they could live with or let him go and receive two firstround picks. They could have used one of those to help their defense or draft another halfback to help replace him.
Even had they not tagged Bell, they could have put that $14,544,000 to good use helping their defense and signing another veteran back to team with Conner.
That’s Monday morning quarterbacking, though. Looking ahead for both parties, Bell will have missed an entire season to go with his past injuries and two drug suspensions. There is divided opinion on whether resting for all of 2018 will help him or hurt him as a free agent next year.
He turns 27 Feb. 18, still young enough for the position. He has 1,653 carries and 325 receptions in five seasons, counting playoffs but not preseason games.
Can Bell make the kind of money in his next contract to make up for the lost $14,544,000 this season? It only takes one suitor with wads of cash and salary-cap room and a big need at the position to prove his stance in 2018 was the correct one, at least on the business end. He’ll never make up for a lost season, if that legacy means much to him.
The Steelers will not place the franchise tag on him a third time next year. What they could do, however, is put the transition tag on him. The cost must be determined and arbitration might determine it, but it should be far less than the $14,544,000 the 2018 franchise tag stipulated. The transition tag also would allow Bell to shop for the best offer, and, when he found one, the Steelers would have a chance to match it, but they would receive no compensation if they decided not to match.
If they matched it, they could trade him anywhere, likely to the team that just signed him. That might not happen because the Steelers might just want to be done with Bell. Or it could stretch this drama out much longer.