Trump optimistic about trade peace with China
BUENOS AIRES, Argentina -- President Donald Trump suggested his Saturday showdown with Chinese President Xi Jinping could produce a cease-fire in the tariff war.
The president struck a notably upbeat tone about prospects for his dinner meeting with Mr. Xi, scheduled for Saturday evening in a downtown hotel following the annual Group of 20 leaders summit. “We’re working very hard. If we can make a deal, that’d be good. I think they want to; I think we’d like to. And we’ll see,” the president told reporters, adding: “There’s some good signs.”
Speaking before a meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, the president did not elaborate. But earlier Friday, the architect of Mr. Trump’s hard-line approach to China, chief trade negotiator Robert Lighthizer, previewed the more optimistic stance.
“I would be very surprised if the dinner is not a success . ... I’m sure at the end there will be a positive feeling by both men,” Mr. Lighthizer told reporters.
Such official optimism, following months of onagain, off-again bargaining, makes it likely that the president will emerge from the dinner with a tangible achievement. But no one expects a sweeping agreement that resolves all of the irritants in the U.S.-China relationship.
One potential bargain would involve the United States deferring further tariff increases in return for China dropping its retaliatory levies on shipments of American soybeans and liquefied natural gas, according to Derek Scissors, a China expert at the American Enterprise Institute who occasionally advises administration officials.
The two presidents also could agree to deputize officials for new negotiations over the most contentious U.S. charges, which go to the core of China’s state-led economic model. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce has proposed talks with a sixmonth deadline to reach a deal that would eliminate tariffs and provide American companies greater access to the Chinese market.
“Trump clearly wants to be seen as tough on China, but also as an effective dealmaker,” said Eswar Prasad, a Cornell University economist and former International Monetary Fund China division chief. “It is unlikely that the substantial differences between the two sides can be bridged anytime in the near future, but even a cessation of additional trade hostilities would be a positive outcome at this stage.”
After earlier talks led by Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin failed, the Chinese want to see Mr. Lighthizer deputized to lead a renewed dialogue.
“The Chinese now no longer believe anyone else can deliver,” said Douglas Rediker, executive chairman of International Capital Strategies, a market advisory firm.
Even as the outlook brightens for the Trump-Xi dinner, the long-run picture looks darker.
Administration officials regard China as an economic predator, a hostile power that seeks to undermine American technological supremacy and unseat Washington as the globe’s dominant power.
The United States complains that Beijing subsidizes its state-owned giants to compete in world markets, steals American technology and maintains strict limits on foreign businesses in China. Officials in Beijing and Washington speak openly of prospects for a new “Cold War” between the two countries.
“I am quite confident that a year from now the cooperative results finalized tomorrow will be evaporating and 2020 will be more contentious than this year,” Mr. Scissors said via email.
The president spent the first part of this week playing down chances for an accommodation with China. He told the Wall Street Journal it was “highly unlikely” he would cancel a planned Jan. 1 increase to 25 percent from 10 percent in tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports.