U.S.’s 66TH LARGEST CITY

Pittsburgh’s population slides, but it’s no longer falling off a cliff

Pittsburgh’s population slid once more in 2018, according to new estimates, but nowhere near the dip it took the year before or the old Steel Phantom coaster-like plunges of prior decades.

The U.S. Census Bureau on Thursday released new population figures as of July 1, 2018, for cities, boroughs and townships. It had been a foregone conclusion the city’s population would be pegged lower than a year earlier, as Pittsburgh anchors a county and metropolitan area that the bureau reported last month had both lost residents in 2017-18.

The question was how big the loss would be in the city proper, and the latest estimate lists Pittsburgh’s population as 301,048, or 672 fewer than in July 2017. That was part of an Allegheny Countywide drop of 2,204, meaning more of the county’s losses came in the suburbs.

The city’s estimated loss was about one-fourth that of the year before, when Pittsburgh shrank by 3,094 and represented the majority of that year’s loss in the county, according to revised estimates from the bureau. Pittsburgh’s current population is reported to be 4,656 lower than when the last official decennial head count was taken in 2010.

Until figures from the full census count of April 2020 are released,

nothing’s certain about the city’s actual population number. The annual estimates based on building permits and demographic data lend themselves, however, to at least two reasonable conclusions:

• The population of what is now the nation’s 66th largest city — passed by Henderson, Nev., and Cincinnati in 2018 — is relatively stable, down an estimated 1.5% since 2010. That compares to losses ranging from 8.6% to 18.5% during each decade from 19502010.

• With population shrinkage estimated at 5,000 during his first four years in office, Mayor Bill Peduto will have trouble making good on his goal of spurring growth of 20,000 in a decade’s time. Meeting Mr. Peduto’s goal would now require the birth or arrival of 25,000 more Pittsburghers than those who die or leave over the next six years.

“He does not regret the goal,” mayoral spokesman Timothy McNulty said when told of the new estimates. “The numbers are trending in the right direction . ... Pockets of the city are seeing great growth and momentum, and his biggest worry is not the numbers of residents, but that growth spreads equitably around the city.”

The mayor believes that efforts such as supporting affordable housing, investing in early childhood education and creating a welcoming environment for immigrants will help grow the number of residents, Mr. McNulty said.

Chris Briem, a University of Pittsburgh regional economist who studies population trends, said the new estimates jibe with a general sense that while certain neighborhoods have been boosted by residential development and other activity, the city’s population overall is neither climbing like some counterparts nor diving like it did in the past.

“Whether it’s growing a little or declining a little, you should think of the city’s population as pretty stable — the most stable it’s been in almost a century,” he said when informed of the estimates.

Mr. Briem said previously released data has suggested the city is gaining young adults and Asian immigrants, but those are offset by decreases in the number of elderly residents, children and African Americans.

“There’s a lot of change in the composition of the city’s population,” he said. The percentage of elderly residents living in the city is now lower than the national average, while the age of those living in Allegheny County’s suburbs and in outlying counties are what make the region comparatively old.

Among 766 U.S. municipalities with at least 50,000 residents, Pittsburgh was one of 235 that lost population from 2017 to 2018, according to the Census Bureau. Of those, 42 cities lost more residents than Pittsburgh, including Erie, with a net loss of 842.

Within Allegheny County, only 17 of 130 municipalities showed estimated population gains. Most of those — as has been customary in recent years — were in the North Hills or in western suburbs along the airport corridor.

The three biggest gainers within the county from 2017 to 2018 were all communities near the Butler County border: Marshall, with a gain of 308; Pine, 263; and Franklin Park, 223. They were followed by Ohio Township, which added 207, and South Fayette, 170.