LOST SEASON
Since All- Star break, tidal wave of futility has engulfed team
‘ We’ve been bad.’ — Steven Brault
Throughout most losing streaks, regardless of the sport, you can pinpoint one or two things that have gone wrong.
In one sense anyway, the Pirates have overachieved. Somehow, they’ve authored a full- scale collapse, going from 2 ½ games out of first place in the National League’s Central Division heading into the All- Star break to 14 games out as of Thursday morning, the result of losing 21 of 25 out of the break.
Pretty much every part of their game has faltered, from the bats to the pitching to the fielding to even routine plays such as executing a rundown or turning a routine double play.
Through it all, the Pirates have lacked answers.
“It’s a tough situation since the break,” Steven Brault said on Tuesday. “We’ve been bad. That’s the only way you can put it.”
Exactly how bad have the Pirates been? Let’s take a look. Warning: Brault’s right; it’s really bad.
The pitching problems
While it would be tough to call the bullpen a strength of this team, it has actually fared better than the starting staff since the All- Star break.
After posting a 4.93 ERA before the break, which ranked 25th in baseball, the bullpen has pitched to a 3.98 ERA out of it, ranking 10th.
There have been some strong individual performances — Richard Rodriguez, Michael Feliz and Felipe Vazquez — yet this whole thing sort of fits the season narrative: Just when one area of the Pirates’ game improves, other problems begin.
The starters, meanwhile, have been markedly worse, their ERA going from 4.90 before ( 21st) to 6.59 since July 12. Only the Rockies ( 6.77) have been worse.
Primarily plaguing the pitching staff has been the home run. Pirates pitchers were allowing 1.40 home runs per nine innings before the break, ranking 18th, and have given up 1.90 out of the break ( 28th).
The problem here is easy to diagnose. Though there’s been a ton of talk about pitching to contact versus getting strikeouts and all this throwing inside, Pirates pitchers have consistently struggled with fastball command, leaving pitches out over the plate.
The quiet offense
The Pirates were never built to be a power- hitting club, but it’s been especially bad over the past 25 games. They’ve hit just 24 home runs in 25 games compared to 98 in 89 games before the break. The league low out of the AllStar break is 22 ( White Sox, Mariners).
Average- wise, that has suffered, too, with Pirates hitters going from .271 ( second in baseball) before the break to .242 over the past 25, good enough for 24th.
Most damning might be the team’s slugging percentage since the All- Star break, which sits at just .384, 29th in MLB, while their OPS has dipped from .764 ( 15th) to .687 ( 27th).
Starling Marte and Bryan Reynolds have been fine, but pretty much everyone else has struggled.
Leads, what leads?
You may have noticed, but the Pirates have struggled to get the lead, let alone hold it. They didn’t have a single one in 27 innings against the Brewers this week.
In an eight- game stretch from July 22- 29, the Pirates led for four of a possible 73 innings. In 228 innings since the break, the Pirates have had the lead for just 45 of them — less than 20% of the time.
That will happen when you’re averaging just 4 runs per game, as the Pirates are since July 12. Their total of 100 runs since that date ranks just 25th.
Individual slumps
Josh Bell has been the most noticeable with a .176 average and no homers since the All- Star break. But four other players manager Clint Hurdle has been using regularly since that time have been at or below the Mendoza Line: Jacob Stallings at .200; Adam Frazier at .185; Elias Diaz .182; and Jung Ho Kang, who has since been designated for assignment, at .161.
Marte, to his credit, has been worth 1.1 wins above replacement ( WAR). Reynolds, Corey Dickerson ( now in Philadelphia), Jose Osuna, Pablo Reyes, Chris Archer and Trevor Williams have combined for 2.1 WAR.
The other remaining Pirates players have either been at zero — replacement level — or below, with that group totaling a - 1.0 WAR. Most games their starting middle infield, Kevin Newman (- 0.4) and Adam Frazier (- 0.3), have been at the bottom of that list.
Pitching- wise, Jordan Lyles, before he was traded, had a 14.63 ERA out of the break. Joe Musgrove ( 6.84), Dario Agrazal ( 5.19) and Williams ( 5.06) have all been at 5 or worse.
Sloppy play
Something we saw a lot of this week — the fielding issues — have really persisted for much of the season.
While the Pirates have been unable to hit or pitch, they’ve also been awful in the field.
Ultimate Zone Rating is a number used to quantify the number of defensive runs saved, and the Pirates have had a worst- in- baseball UZR this season of - 33.0. Only two teams have a worse fielding percentage than the Pirates’ .980.
While the Pirates can’t suddenly become a bunch of power hitters, they should be able to make routine plays. Since the All- Star break, however, they’ve really struggled doing that.
What it means
The conclusion to draw here is not good.
The Pirates aren’t close. Even if they fix one key part of their game, there are likely one or two more that will need work, the same as the bullpen and the implosion everywhere else since that July 12 afternoon in Chicago.
It’s a tough hill to climb, one that has already ruined their season but one that could and should start costing people jobs if it doesn’t stop soon.
“Nobody is going to feel sorry for you,” manager Clint Hurdle said. “At the end of the day, a lot of people don’t care. They just want results. We need to play better.”