Americans have reason to care about the U. K.
As I sail aboard the Silver Spirit, a ship sailing through the Baltic Sea, it has been made clear to me that the fate of the United Kingdom is very much on Europeans’ minds, even if most Americans are only lightly following along.
The U. K., which recently saw the Conservative Party vault Boris Johnson into power as the country’s new prime minister, is scheduled to leave the European Union on Oct. 31. For many, the future is full of unknowns.
Particularly young Europeans, who have grown up with the U. K. in the EU, have a lot of questions. Many of them have spouses from other EU countries, with children born in France, Italy or someplace else, and don’t like the idea of nationalities being in question, or perhaps even worse, seeing employment opportunities shrink.
For people living in the U. K., the potential economic costs are most alarming. Britain has always been a trading nation and much of that trade has historically been with continental Europe. London has also been a financial center and, instead of the city and the British pound remaining important, the U. K., in spite of the brave words, will now operate from a different perspective.
It was a member of a 28- member European- wide organization, with unique ties to the world’s largest economy and military power, the United States, serving as the EU and European bridge to America. With Brexit, Britain will be a middle- size power, with a likely shaky economy,
perhaps even at risk of fragmenting. The British face higher prices, fewer jobs, possible inflation and shrunken markets.
Then there is the possibility of the disintegration of the U. K. Scotland has flirted regularly with the idea of independence, particularly with its oil wealth. Northern Ireland has never stopped wrestling with the idea of amalgamating with the Republic of Ireland, an EU member. Wales, who knows? So maybe it would be just England swimming on its own.
The U. K. used to be important for its military power. But in light of the power of NATO, Russia and China, the U. K. is no longer a major military player. It will swing much less punch out of the EU, rather than in it.
So is that how the British want the U. K. to be made great again? It isn’t the big estates or even Agatha Christie’s villages with gardens and flowers anymore. The Brexit enterprise, it must be remembered, was basically the ploy of then- Prime Minister David Cameron of the Conservative Party, trying to save his job. Another Tiny Tim of history.
There is absolutely nothing in it for the United States in this venture. Instead of a strong member of a logical European configuration, the U. S. will get a floundering country to which it is still tied. The quality of British advice to the U. S. has declined in recent years, but it was still independent and sometimes insightful. I always found it useful in the countries where I served, from Bulgaria to Lebanon, to see what the British had to say about things.
As for Boris Johnson as prime minister, he finds himself at a crisis point in British history. Winston Churchill, he is not. Mr. Johnson may rise to the occasion, but I think it is more likely that he is in the same category as America’s current showy but undistinguished leadership.
And if, as in 1917 and 1941, the U. K. finds itself on the ropes, who is going to save them this time? President Donald J. Trump’s United States? A cup of tea and British spirit may not do it this time. There is some thought among the British that, as in World War II, they would rise to meet challenges. I hope so, but it’s not the same Britain.
One way out would be another referendum, with the potential to simply forget about Brexit and the perils of leaving the EU. That would give the Europeans at least a good laugh and would weaken the stature of the U. K. retaking its seat in the EU. But so what? It’s good for politicians to be humiliated sometimes. I imagine the reaction of most of the British would be relief.
On the other hand, the electorate might vote again for Brexit. At least at that point, one would be sure. But all four segments, England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, should be required to approve it, not just England.
There is good reason to care about what happens to the U. K. Many of our institutions and much of our history and culture are tangled up with the British. And many of us are not that good at learning other languages.