Pitt’s run of close games should end

Weak by weak

Syracuse’s resume to date is less than impressive.

The Orange, starting the season ranked in the Associated Press Top 25, opened with a 24-0 win over Liberty, which was playing its first game as a full-time FBS program. Then, Syracuse was steamrolled by Maryland, 63-20, and demolished by Clemson, 41-6. Wins over Western Michigan and Holy Cross were expected before the Orange laid an egg in their 16-10 loss at N.C. State last week.

Syracuse, which boasted the 11th-best scoring offense in the country in 2018 (40.2 ppg), has managed 36 total points in three games against Power Five opponents. That’s the second-lowest total among teams who have played three Power Five programs, behind only Kent State.

Putrid pass protection

Syracuse might be the worst offensive line the Panthers face the rest of the way. The Orange have allowed 26 sacks through six games, fourth-most in the FBS. More notably, they allowed 20 in three games vs. Power Five opponents (four to Maryland and eight each to Clemson and N.C. State).

Pitt, of course, is second nationally in sacks and boasts a 7-0 record when it records six sacks or more in a game under Narduzzi. The Panthers also rank fifth in the country in havoc rate (percentage of defensive plays that result in a pass defended, forced fumble or TFL) at 23.1%.

Syracuse’s offensive line looked lost against N.C. State. Jaylen Twyman, Patrick Jones and company might tee off, as might linebacker Kylan Johnson and blitzing corners out of Pitt’s nickel formation.

Soft secondary

Syracuse has forced 13 turnovers this season, which is good. Problem is, the Orange defense has picked on its non-Power Five opponents. Nine of those 13 takeaways came against Liberty, Western Michigan and Holy Cross.

Syracuse did intercept Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence twice, so it’s not as if Pickett is impervious to picks on Friday night. But to describe Syracuse as stout against the pass would be irresponsible. In fact, the Orange’s secondary is pretty porous.

Syracuse has allowed 276.8 passing yards per game (111th nationally) and 26 completions of 20 yards or more (110th). Ten of those were completed by Western Michigan and Liberty combined.

Pickett’s made mistakes in his two ACC games so far this season, throwing a pair of picks against Virginia and Duke. But, coming out of an off week, No. 8 has a chance to keep a clean stat sheet at the Carrier Dome.

Prediction

It feels weird picking anything other than a one-score difference given the recent history between Pitt and Syracuse — and considering the Panthers’ exasperating results so far this season. But too many factors bode well for Pitt.

If Pitt’s front-seven bosses Syracuse’s offensive line and Pickett avoids turning the ball over, the Panthers could have their first threescore win since they clinched the Coastal Division at Wake Forest on Nov. 17, 2018.

Pick: Pitt 27, Syracuse 10