State races drawing attention from national political groups
As U.S. Census Bureau mailings and advertisements rain down on Western Pennsylvania this year, so will millions of dollars in spending by deep-pocketed national political groups that hope to garner as much leverage as possible over the redrawing of congressional lines.
The incoming flow of money is expected to pour into the down-ballot races in Allegheny County and elsewhere across Pennsylvania that are likely to determine the control of the state House and Senate in 2021. That is when the party with the most control over the Legislature
will have the most outsize impact on reshaping district lines.
“With Pennsylvania set to lose a congressional seat by 2022 and population in the state pushing eastward, the next redistricting has enormous implications for politics in the commonwealth for a decade to come,” said Christopher Borick, director of Muhlenberg College’s Institute of Public Opinion.
Pennsylvania is high on the list of targets for many outside groups that want to impact the
redistricting process. Most of these groups — at least for now — are Democratic and want to help Democrats in Pennsylvania play offense to win majorities in both chambers of the Legislature.
To flip the Legislature entirely, Democrats would need to hold onto all of their own seats while unseating nine Republicans in the House and four in the Senate.
And to the victor go the decennial spoils, as the Legislature is responsible for drawing congressional boundaries — subject to veto by the Democratic governor — that will stand until the next census in 2030.
“We believe, especially in a swing state like Pennsylvania, that when we have fair maps, not only is it better for voters to choose their representatives — but when we have fairer maps, more Democrats win,” said Matt Harringer, outgoing spokesman for the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee.
The DLCC, focused on winning state legislative seats for Democrats nationwide, will invest heavily in Pennsylvania this year as part of its $50 million spending in seven target states.
It is operating under the assumption that flipping both chambers blue in Harrisburg — paired with a Democratic governor and a majority on the state Supreme Court — will give Democrats “more leverage at every level” of the redistricting process, Mr. Harringer said.
When Pennsylvania lines were redrawn after the 2010 census, Republicans held majorities in both chambers, as well as the governorship. That gave the GOP the freest hand it had in decades in drawing congressional and legislative maps calculated to favor their candidates, a legislative analyst told the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette at the time.
The Republican success in that cycle “greatly contributed to GOP domination of the General Assembly and congressional delegation for much of the decade,” Mr. Borick said.
But the Republicandrawn congressional maps were struck down and redrawn by the state Supreme Court last year for violating the Pennsylvania Constitution, saying the maps amounted to an illegal partisan gerrymander.
This time, Republicans are tasked with defending their majorities, a focus that is falling to an apparatus of groups that includes the National Republican Redistricting Trust and the Republican State Leadership Committee.
The trust has said the stakes “could not be higher” — which is why the trust will provide Republicans with “the best data and litigation support possible for this upcoming redistricting cycle,” it wrote on Twitter earlier this month.
Sam DeMarco, chair of the Republican Committee of Allegheny County, said he believes Republicans will hold onto their majorities in both chambers by “continuing to do what they’ve been doing well”: pledging to be a check on Gov. Tom Wolf, a Democrat.
Mr. DeMarco added that he isn’t surprised that Pennsylvania is garnering attention from national Democratic groups.
“They’ve seen how the unconstitutional redistricting by the Pennsylvania Supreme Court resulted in [Democrats] winning congressional seats they couldn’t at the ballot box and are hoping to build on that,” Mr. DeMarco said.
All 203 seats in the House are up for election with 23 in Allegheny County, either partially or entirely. Seven are held by Republicans, including the 30th and 44th districts — which are being targeted by the progressive Democratic group Swing Left as key flip opportunities.
As part of its focus on legislative chambers in 10 states, Swing Left will organize and spend resources on flipping more than a dozen House seats in Pennsylvania and defending three others. The group eyes 2020 as “the last time we’ll be able to have an electoral influence over the redistricting process,” said Ryan Quinn, a political analyst with the group.
For door knockers and political spenders, Pennsylvania provides one of the “best return on investments” for Democrats who want to influence races from the presidency down to the state House, Swing Left’s organizing head, Tori Taylor, added.
The group will tap into its grassroots donor and volunteer networks to concentrate support on downballot races, the officials said, and once a Democratic nominee is selected in those districts, the resources are handed over.
At least two Democrats have announced bids for the 30th district, held by Republican Lori Mizgorski. Hampton education advocate Lissa Geiger Shulman and real estate account executive Serra Heck are vying for the Democratic nomination to represent the district, which includes Hampton, Richland and Fox Chapel.
In the 44th, Republican Valerie Gaydos will also have to fend off a challenger, as educator Michele Knoll has announced her Democratic run. Ms. Gaydos beat Ms. Knoll in 2018 by about 1,000 votes in the district that spans the west and north Allegheny County suburbs around Pittsburgh International Airport.
As part of the attention from outside groups on redistricting, Western Pennsylvania’s 37th Senatorial District is shaping up to be a battleground, and has been signaled by Swing Left as a main defense priority.
Democrat Pam Iovino won the district in a special election in 2019 by tapping into labor unions and Democratic activist groups that convened across the region after Donald Trump’s election in 2016.
This time, at least two Republicans are hoping to face her: Devlin Robinson, a Bridgeville businessman and Marine veteran, and Jeff Neff, a fire chief who is Sewickley Borough Council president.
For candidates, Jan. 28 marks the first day they can circulate nominating petitions. On the last day, Feb. 18, voters will get a clearer picture of the slate of candidates vying for each district.