Ukraine affair has played into Putin’s hands

The Ukraine matter becomes more complicated as more elements — two presidential elections, presidential candidates, regional politics, etc. — come into play.

There are a couple of basic diplomatic and general prescriptions that might help us sort the whole mess out. For one, it is always useful to look at an issue from the vantage of the other party’s foxhole, in this instance, Ukraine. One could also examine the possible outcomes to consider who wins and who loses in each scenario.

Taking the first approach, we must consider the alleged quid pro quo that took place between President Donald Trump and Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. Mr. Trump supposedly told Mr. Zelenskiy that Ukraine would get $391 million in military aid and a chance to visit the White House only if the country publicly investigated former Vice President Joe Biden and his son, Hunter.

This proposal put Ukraine up against the wall. If Mr. Zelenskiy decides not to take the deal Mr. Trump is offering, he thinks he doesn’t get the military aid or the visit. All of that offers a major victory to Russia and Vladimir Putin. If Ukraine does not get the military aid, it puts its forces in the east at an even greater disadvantage against Russian and Russian-supported dissident forces. Russia already outguns and outnumbers Ukraine massively.

So it is entirely clear that the Ukrainian president has good reason to take Mr. Trump’s deal. For Russia, it’s better if he doesn’t. But Ukraine actually still loses if its president takes the deal, investigates the Bidens and Mr. Biden still manages to win the election. He would come to office with a hatred for Mr. Zelenskiy and Ukraine for having helped Mr. Trump try to torpedo his candidacy. That, too, would be a victory for Mr. Putin and Russia.

In fact, there do seem to be quite a few outcomes in this sordid mess that favor Mr. Putin and the Russians. We have to ask why. I suppose that aspect of it could be called an accident, or it could be sophisticated global strategy.

It isn’t exactly clear what Mr. Putin is up to now. He has created his own superstructure and corralled his opposition with an iron fist. Has he merely taken the necessary steps to stay in power until the cows come home? Or has he set himself up to clamp down on Ukraine, as the U.S. is distracted by the ongoing impeachment kerfuffle?

Whatever Mr. Putin does next, one lesson Americans can safely draw from the Ukraine affair is that American diplomacy is currently being handled by a fleet of amateurs. The decision-making that forced Ukraine against the wall for domestic political reasons simply does not make sense. It placed the U.S. president in a situation that has now led to his impeachment, and it played directly into Russian interests. That’s just plain nuts.

For further evidence that U.S. foreign policy is under the direction of fools, look no further than Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s recent dustup with a reporter from NPR. The reporter, Mary Louise Kelly, was seeking comment on the Ukraine-impeachment drama and Mr. Pompeo’s non-defense of State Department officials who had been dragged into the matter. It is a legitimate topic on which Mr. Pompeo should be prepared and willing to comment. Instead, he cussed her out for having sought his opinion.

Mr. Pompeo’s inability to handle normal press questions should be the end of him. Ray Charles would have sent him back to Arkansas — or Kansas.