First, second half splits worry Capel
Shooting patterns defy explanation as well as remedy
For all the many ways it can be quantified, basketball is still, in many ways, a game of mysteries. Even for the head coaches who are paid millions of dollars to oversee college programs, there’s sometimes not an answer. College basketball is, fundamentally, a strange sport played by young, imperfect athletes.
The Pitt men’s basketball team exists as only one example.
The Panthers have improved from where they were one year ago, standing as a more talented and deeper team that has the added benefit of playing in an unusually weak ACC, but they’re nonetheless a flabbergasting, wildly inconsistent bunch on a game-to-game basis — or even a half-to-half one.
Their past five road games have followed an all too familiar script.
In the first half, they’ll spend long stretches flailing offensively, usually digging themselves in a fairly deep hole by the time they go to the locker room at halftime. Once the second half begins and it appears as though it is dangerously close to being blown out, an entirely different Pitt team takes the court, one that seemingly can’t miss and is at one point improbably in a position to win the game, even if all but one of those contests has ended in a loss.
There are a handful of factors to which those splits could be tied. Pitt still is relatively inexperienced, with sophomores and a freshman accounting for four of its five leading scorers. As much as the roster has improved over the past 24 months, it still lags behind several of its ACC peers. Its two primary ball-handlers, Xavier Johnson and Trey McGowens, have been erratic this season, so it would generally make sense that their team goes as they do.
As his team prepares for a Saturday visit to Virginia Tech, though, Panthers coach Jeff Capel is faced with a trend that, when it comes to specifically diagnosing it, remains largely inexplicable.
“It’s weird,” Capel said. Capel had first mentioned the gulf between Pitt’s first and second half showings after a Feb. 5 loss at Notre Dame, a game in which it shot 37.9% in the first half and 44.4% in the second.
The fact that such a game stands as the closest thing the Panthers have had to a balanced performance on the road in months only reinforces Capel’s befuddlement.
In their past five road games, all of which have come against ACC opponents, they have shot 32.4% overall in the first half and 49% in the second. From 3-point range, they have gone 23.3% in the first half and 40.4% in the second, though the latter figure is inflated a good deal by an 8-of12 outburst in the final 20 minutes of a Jan. 18 win at North Carolina.
Game by game, the numbers are just as startling:
• North Carolina: 32.1% in the first half; 58.3% in the second (trailed at half by nine, won by eight)
• Miami: 29.6% in the first half; 40.5% in the second (trailed at half by nine, lost by eight)
• Syracuse: 23.1% in the first half; 53.6% in the second (trailed at half by 11, lost by eight)
• Duke: 37.5% in the first half; 52% in the second (trailed at half by 11, lost by 12)
• Notre Dame: 37.9% in the first half; 44.4% in the second (trailed at half by nine, lost by eight)
They’ve even been plagued by those stark differences in the two neutral-site games they’ve had, as they shot 40% and 36.4% in the first half in late November against Kansas State and Northwestern, respectively, only to catch fire in the second half, shooting 54.5% and 53.1% in a pair of wins.
“We have to figure something out because it’s incredibly drastic,” Capel said.
“In the second half, our offense is in front of us, so maybe we’re able to help them out a little bit more. But we have these lulls.”
Those lulls have played a pronounced role in those early game struggles. In the first half of those five road games, Pitt has gone at least 3:05 without scoring nine times. In four of those nine instances, it was held without a point for at least 4:19.
It’s in moments like those when Capel will call a timeout and gather his team around him, often holding out his hands, flashing his palms at his players and urging them to calm down.
“We try to talk about relaxing,” Capel said. “You’ve got to take good shots, you’ve got to execute, take your shot with confidence when you have it, be decisive in your move or your shots or whatever it is you’re doing.”
Even when possible explanations for those half-to-half inconsistencies surface within a single game, when that’s put in the context of the same general struggles occurring over several weeks, it only creates more uncertainty.
“Sometimes, it can be that we’re trying to go too fast,” Capel said.
“It’s coming from a great place. But we have to figure that out. I wish I knew the answer. We have to figure it out.”