Shooting woes dip to new lows
Previous three games display deterioration
Pitt’s offense has, in many instances, served as a microcosm for its season.
There are times when it has been something beyond competent, even good and radiant. It performed well earlier in the season against the likes of Monmouth, Arkansas-Pine Bluff and Binghamton. Even against teams it didn’t pay tens of thousands of dollars to beat, it has had its moments, like when it scored 71 points on 68 possessions against a Rutgers team that has spent time this season in the top 25 and has a top-10 defense. As ACC-only play began and competition ratcheted up, its production slipped a bit, as did the team’s win percentage (which happens to many programs across the country).
Over the past three games, as the Panthers’ season has started to crater in the face of three consecutive losses — taking them from the outer fringes of the NCAA tournament bubble to the increasingly high likelihood they won’t even make the National Invitation Tournament — so too has their offense.
During its three-game losing streak, which has it at 15-12 overall and 6-10 in the ACC heading into a matchup Saturday against Virginia, what had been an inconsistent offense prone to long bouts of impotency has been something worse.
Past three games: 57 of 164 shooting (34.8%), 13 of 57 from 3-point range (22.8%), 176 points on 195 possessions (0.9 points per possession)
In previous 13 ACC games: 296 of 741 shooting (39.9%), 78 of 244 from 3 (32%), 848 points on 854 possessions (0.99 points per possession)
That sharp dip has been the most evident in Pitt’s most prominent players.
Sophomore guards Xavier Johnson and Trey McGowens, who comfortably lead all players on their team in percentage of possessions used (25% and 24.2%, respectively) have struggled mightily the past three games. Johnson has missed 24 of his 30 shots in that time, as well as nine of his 10 3s, while McGowens has missed 20 of his 24 shots and 10 of his 12 3s. Collectively, they’ve shot 10 of 54 overall (18.5%) and three of 22 from 3 (13.6%).
Though it came with more team success,
those shortcomings predate the Panthers’ current skid. In the five games before the three recent losses, going back to a Jan. 25 loss at Syracuse, Johnson shot 19 of 60 overall (31.7%) and four of 18 from 3 (22.2%) while McGowens didn’t fare much better, going 16 of 52 overall (30.8%) and eight of 28 from 3 (28.6%).
Part of this has to do with a high level of attention opposing teams pay to the two guards in their preparation for Pitt. The Panthers are more well-rounded than they were a year ago, but, generally speaking, if an opponent neutralizes the pair, it’s very likely to win. The two, for all they have accomplished in their careers thus far, also aren’t especially good or efficient shooters. In the season’s first 19 games, Johnson shot 40.3% from the field and McGowens 39.5%. This came after a freshman season in which they shot 41.5% and 41.7% overall, respectively, and 35.2% and 32.7% from 3.
“There’s a lot of attention on those two guys,” Pitt coach Jeff Capel said after Tuesday’s 82-67 loss at Florida State. “They have bigger guys. They switch everything. They just kept sending bodies at them. They missed some shots, too. That’s part of it. They missed some shots.”
It hasn’t just been them, either. Over the past three games, Justin Champagnie, the team’s leading scorer at 12.4 points per game, has shot just 10 of 31 (32.3%) and three of 17 from 3 (17.6%). The closest thing the Panthers have had to a consistent offensive presence in that time has been sophomore forward Au’Diese Toney, who has gone 12 of 28 overall (42.9%) and four of nine from 3 (44.4%) while averaging 12.3 points per game.
What has perhaps been the most damaging aspect of those shooting woes from Johnson, McGowens and Champagnie has been their prominence in the team’s offense. In those three games, they accounted for 85 of Pitt’s 164 shots (51.8%) and made just 20 of those attempts (23.5%).
With those recent stumbles, the Panthers’ offense has tumbled even further in many national offensive rankings. On the season, they’re 330th in 3-point percentage (29.4%) and 319th in field goal percentage (40.7%), ranking them among the 35 worst Division I teams in both categories. Additionally, they’re 332nd in effective field goal percentage, which accounts for the fact 3s are worth more points, and in ACC play, they’re last among the league’s 15 teams in that measurement.
That Pitt will be playing Saturday against a famously (or, for opponents, notoriously) stingy Virginia defense, which is fourth nationally in defensive efficiency, means that its problems may get worse before they get better.
With only four regular season games remaining, the time for a sharp turnaround is limited. This may very well just be what this team, as presently constructed, is.