Numbers tell story as losses pile up
All key statistics drop in late-season collapse
College basketball coaches are, by nature, conditioned to worry, even in what seem like the best of times.
In that way, Jeff Capel is no different. When his Pitt team was 15-9 just 17 days ago, making a postseason appearance of some kind appeared likely. Capel was asked if he was worried about his team potentially stumbling in the final weeks of the season in the same way it did one year earlier. Somewhat surprisingly, given the Panthers’ relatively strong position and success to that point, Capel said yes, he was.
His concerns were justified. Pitt has lost each of its five games since then and has been largely non-competitive, losing by an average of 14.2 points per game. Two of the losses — blowouts of 23 and 20 points at the hands of Syracuse and Clemson, respectively — are among the four most lopsided defeats of Capel’s tenure. It’s not necessarily that the Panthers have hit a wall, though Capel has noted they’re a tired team; it’s that they’ve been unrecognizable at times, playing for long stretches without the intensity, passion and aggression that was so evident for many of their first 25 games, even in losses.
Where have things fallen apart? It’s a simple question with any number of answers.
Erratic offense has gotten even worse
Even when its record was good, Pitt’s offense wasn’t exactly potent. Perhaps nothing, though, has embodied its fivegame losing streak quite like its offensive dip.
During that five-game skid, the Panthers have scored just 281 points on 329 possessions, an average of 0.85 points per possession. They never averaged better than 0.96 points per possession in a game during that time. It’s a sizable regression from where they were, even when they were playing against relatively similar competition. In their previous 11 ACC games, they scored 739 points on 730 possessions (1.01 points per possession).
While the teams they’ve played provide some explanation — Virginia, Florida State and Clemson all play excellent defense — it doesn’t provide the full story. Pitt scored only 57 points on 65 possessions (0.88 points per possession) against a Virginia Tech team ranked 101st among 353 Division I teams in defensive efficiency and got a horrid 49 points on 70 possessions (0.7 points per possession) on Wednesday against Syracuse, which is 111th in defensive efficiency.
Shooting has been woeful
Those offensive shortcomings can be tied, in large part, to the most fundamental part of the sport: making shots. This game has always been about buckets, and the Panthers simply haven’t gotten many of them lately.
In those five games, they’ve shot just 34.4% from the field and 22.4% from 3point range. Even on shots within the arc, they’ve struggled, making only 41% of those attempts. They haven’t shot better than 38.6% overall in any of those games, bottoming out at 29.1% against Syracuse, which did a nice job of discombobulating Pitt offensively by bringing rangy center Bourama Sidibe up to the high post to challenge players who may try to take shots from the middle of the Orange’s zone.
For the season, Pitt is shooting 40.3% from the field, ranking 329th in Division I and last in the ACC, and 28.9% from 3 (335th in Division I). Though it hasn’t been a particularly good shooting team at any point this season, it was at least much better than it is now. In its first 24 games, it was making 41.4% of its shots and 30.3% of its 3s, seven and eight percentage points, respectively, higher than what it has done in the past five contests.
The defense has languished
For many of the Panthers’ first 24 games, whatever offensive misfortune they experienced was counteracted by a clawing and effective defense that worked to keep them in games.
That, too, has changed recently. Over those five losses, Pitt has given up 352 points on 329 possessions (1.07 points per possession) after allowing 746 points on 730 possessions (1.02 points per possession) in its previous 11 ACC games. That recent run included giving up 1.2 points per possession to a Clemson team ranked 152nd in offensive efficiency and 1.03 points per possession to a Virginia Tech squad ranked 123rd in that category, putting both among the bottom six teams in the ACC.
The Panthers have allowed those five most recent opponents to shoot 46.8% from the field, but the most condemning stat has been those teams’ ability to make outside shots. Pitt’s past five opponents have gone 41.4% from 3 after it allowed opponents to shoot just 32.6% from beyond the arc in the first 24 games.
“It has been everything,” Capel said after the Syracuse loss about the team’s defense. “It has been a mixed bag. Sometimes, the energy is there, but the communication is not there, the execution is not there. Sometimes, the first-shot defense is pretty good, but then we don’t rebound the ball. The communication is key. I’ve always felt you can hear a good team, especially on the defensive end. Talk unites. Talk connects. We haven’t done a good job with that over the past month or so.”
Primary ball-handlers have struggled
It’s overly simplistic to pin any team’s woes on a player or two, but when those players have the ball in their hands more than anyone else on the squad, it does go some way in explaining any shortcomings.
Xavier Johnson and Trey McGowens were not only Pitt’s two leading returning scorers heading into the season, but they’re among the top 500 Division I
players in percentage of their team’s possessions used. For that pair of sophomores, the past five games have been difficult at many times. McGowens has been shooting 25.6% in that time and Johnson hasn’t been much better, at 28.2%.
After a strong start to the season from deep, Johnson has made just 20% of his 3s in those contests. McGowens is averaging 3.8 turnovers per game (to three assists) during that span while attempting just two free throws per game, a low mark for an aggressive and athletic dribble penetrator.
Both have had their moments, even during their team’s lull. Johnson was excellent against Virginia, with 16 points and six steals, and McGowens, for any lack of scoring, was good against Virginia Tech, with seven assists and seven rebounds. For the most part, though, they’ve been in a rut, especially against zone defenses.
“The zone stands us up and it gets us thinking instead of being instinctive,” Capel said after the Syracuse loss. “Normally, those guys do that. They drive it and try to attack the basket. We are trying to get downhill.”
Dominated in crucial stretches
Pitt has had a nasty and destructive habit this season of often coming out slow, struggling to score in the game’s opening minutes and ceding control of the game. Lately, however, it has been a different time in the game in which it has really faltered.
Though it trailed at halftime in each of its five most recent losses, Pitt was often behind by a manageable amount at the midpoint. In the early stages of the second half, many of those games have turned into blowouts.
• Syracuse: Outscored 20-11 in first 7:09 of the second half (trailed by 16 at halftime)
• Virginia: Outscored 13-2 in first 7:42 (trailed by two at half)
• Florida State: Outscored 24-11 in first 9:06 (trailed by five at half)
• Virginia Tech: Outscored 19-9 in first 7:02 (trailed by nine at half)
• Clemson: Outscored 18-7 in first 7:49 (trailed by eight at half)
In each of those cases, the game wasn’t lost for good, but the Panthers dug themselves into a hole out of which they were unable to climb. The same could very well now be said for their season.