OPEC+ talks fail, threatening oil alliance

OPEC+ talks ended in dramatic failure, auguring the end of a diplomatic alliance between Saudi Arabia and Russia that has underpinned crude prices and changed the balance of power in the Middle East.

Oil fell more than 9% after Russia refused to bend to the will of Saudi Arabia, whose high-stakes gamble took the group to a breaking point.

Saudi Arabia wanted to slash production to offset the hit to demand from COVID-19. But Moscow had a different idea. Russia’s budget is more resilient to low prices than its Middle

Eastern allies, and it’s betting that weak crude values will help wipe out competition from U.S. shale.

It is bad news for energy giants such as Exxon Mobil, resource-dependent countries from Latin America to Central Asia, and companies like BP trying to reinvent themselves as greener producers. Low prices will help some economies, though — a welcome stimulus in the face of the coronavirus.

The breakdown is the biggest crisis since Saudi Arabia, Russia and more than 20 other nations created the OPEC+ alliance in 2016. The group, controlling more than half of the world’s oil production, has underpinned prices and reshaped the geopolitics of the Middle East — all the while increasing Russian President Vladimir Putin’s clout in the region. But it has come under increasing strain over the past year.

Oil traders will now be looking for signs of whether Saudi Arabia, Russia or any of the other OPEC+ nations, unshackled from the cartel’s restrictions and with budget holes to fill, could actually increase production. It’s possible that they will, one delegate said.

“Given today’s decision, all OPEC+ countries from

April 1 have no obligations to cut output,” Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak told reporters.

Brent crude oil, the international standard, slumped as much as 9.4% — the most since September 2015 — and traded at $46.21 a barrel as of 4:48 p.m. in London.

“The coronavirus has claimed one victim: the alliance of oil producers,” said Roger Diwan, an analyst at consultant IHS Markit Ltd and a veteran OPEC watcher. “Facing a dramatic decline in demand, they are throwing in the towel on market management. We are likely to see the lowest oil prices of the last 20 years in the next quarter.”