Bullpen boasts talent to transform itself quickly
PIttsburgh Post-Gazette
The bullpen wasn’t the only reason the Pirates stumbled to a 69-win season in 2019, their worst since going 57-105 in 2010. An MLB-high 121 errors certainly played a part. So did a horrific second-half slump where the Pirates lost 24 of 28 at one point, myriad clubhouse issues and starting pitchers who didn’t work deep enough into games.
But for an organization that produced the best bullpen ERA (3.39) in baseball from 2013-18, what happened last season was definitely a step back. The good news is that taking a couple steps forward is possible. In fact, it’s actually not insane to think that, if baseball is played in 2020, the bullpen could become one of the Pirates’ strengths.
“I told [new pitching coach] Oscar [Marin], there are some dudes here that are knocking on the door, just ready to take that next step,” bullpen coach Justin Meccage said during spring training. “Then all of a sudden you have some interesting conversations on who’s going to be
the eight in the bullpen, instead of not having anybody. “We have guys.” Before analyzing those guys — taking a closer look at who might bounce back and who could potentially break out — let’s first take stock of the situation.
The Pirates bullpen pitched to a 4.91 ERA in 2019, which was 23rd in Major League Baseball. For the Pirates, it was their worst such performance since 1953 (5.01 ERA) and likely the second-worst of this current era of bullpen usage (roughly 1988 to present) behind the 1994 squad, which pitched to a 5.42 ERA.
So, yeah. It was bad. Too many walks was arguably the biggest issue, as Pirates relievers allowed 4.37 per nine innings; only the Red Sox (4.38) fared worse. Also, think relievers throwing strikes doesn’t matter? Of the 10 worst teams in walks per nine last season, none made the playoffs, and their combined winning percentage was .417 (675-943).
Another gigantic issue was home runs. Pirates relievers gave up 1.47 per nine innings in 2019, which ranked 21st. That actually qualifies as the worst rate in modern Pirates history, although home runs are also being hit at a record clip these days, too.
Richard Rodriguez endured a stretch where he gave up nine in his first 26 appearances and finished with 14 allowed. From June 4 to Sept. 8, Kyle Crick gave up all 10 of his homers in just 31 appearances. And Michael Feliz allowed 44 hits in 58 games. Eleven of them, or 25%, landed over the fence.
How can the Pirates fix these problems and enter 2020 with a reasonably competent bullpen? A couple ways.
For one, they need Crick to rediscover his 2018 form, when he had a 2.39 ERA and struck out 65 over 60⅓ innings. Back then, Crick gave up just three home runs and had a walk rate of 3.4 per nine — a far cry from his 6.4 in 2019. Tipping pitches became an issue for Crick in 2019, one he and the Pirates coaching staff believe they’ve resolved.
The off-field problems Crick experienced with Felipe Vazquez — it was much more than Crick simply disliking the Pirates’ former closer — are also over, while Crick and closer Keone Kela seem to get along quite well.
Speaking of Kela, there should be pretty much zero concern about his ability assuming he stays healthy. After returning from right shoulder inflammation last season, Kela was basically unhittable, allowing just one run over 18 innings. Kela struck out nearly a third (22 of 69) of the batters he faced from July 24 through the end of the season.
But as far as Crick improving, he spent time this offseason chatting with Pirates coaches and members of the video staff, adjusting his between-pitch routine and how he looks throwing his wipeout slider as opposed to a four -seam fastball or sinker. If those things return to being non-issues, Crick has the stuff to become one of the best setup men in the league.
What Rodriguez experienced was also a headscratcher. Starting June 2, he was scored on just once in his next 27 outings and didn’t allow an extra-base hit during that time. The difference isn’t hard to pick out, either. As a guy who relies heavily on his four-seamer (81.9% usage in 2019), Rodriguez simply became too mistake-prone up in the zone.
The Pirates also have a few bounce-back candidates who are good bets to supplement these pieces. Edgar Santana finished 2018 with a 3.26 ERA and is returning from Tommy John surgery. Nick Burdi has dealt with myriad injury issues throughout his career but was excellent before an elbow injury ended his 2019 after just 8⅔ innings.
Santana and Burdi both looked terrific this spring before the season was halted. So did Feliz, who struck out 73 in 56⅓ innings in 2019 and allowed hard contact at a 29.2% clip — 10th-best among MLB relievers who logged 40 or more innings. Translation: Feliz has been pretty good when not serving up gopher balls.
If Kela, Crick, Rodriguez, Santana, Burdi and Feliz even come close to panning out, the Pirates bullpen could be in excellent shape for 2020. Especially when you take into account some of the other arms they could possible use, a collection of talent that could actually give Pittsburgh a reasonable amount of depth here.
There’s a chance Robbie Erlin could open the season as the Pirates’ primary lefthanded option. He has a 3.86 career ERA out of the bullpen. Steven Brault, meanwhile, was arguably the Pirates best starting pitcher for a large chunk of last season.
Chris Stratton was effective as a long man, and Clay Holmes flashed some promise this spring when it came to controlling his sinker and using his curveball more — until he was lost with a fractured right foot. Blake Cederlind, another hard-throwing righty who has been tremendous since incorporating a sinker into his pitch mix, isn’t far off.
“I think we can be really good,” Kela said. “I think we have one of the best bullpens in baseball. This is one of the most talented bullpens that I’ve ever pitched in. As far as how we shape up, if our starters can give us 5-6 innings, I think we’re going to be good. We’ll give people a run for their money.”
• Statistically speaking: Rodriguez had some crazy year-over-year changes; his home run rate went from 0.6 per nine innings to 1.9 in 2019, while his strikeouts per nine went from 11.4 in 2018 to 8.7 this past season.
• Know this: Granted he threw about half as many, but Holmes (43.1% on 208 thrown) had a better whiff percentage on his curveball in 2019 than Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw (34.9 on 424).
• They said it: “It honestly can be challenging to catch because he gets so much movement on it. He’ll start it right down the middle, and it’ll end up outside. But that’s what makes it so nasty. It’s an exceptional pitch.” — Jacob Stallings on Crick’s slider.