Levine cautions against opening too early
Pennsylvania Secretary of Health Dr. Rachel Levine doubled down on the state’s gradual approach to restarting the economy Tuesday, citing a COVID-19 mortality forecast of much higher death rates through August than previously predicted.
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington on Monday forecast nearly 135,000 deaths from the highly contagious disease by Aug. 4, up 66% from the 81,000 deaths predicted March 26. The upward revision considered rising population mobility and the easing of social distancing measures that was expected in 31 states by May 11, factors that were not part of the earlier forecast.
The predicted COVID-19 mortality rate for Pennsylvania was also up sharply, from 1,000 deaths forecast in March to 8,607 deaths predicted Monday. Dr. Levine said the higher numbers illustrated the risk in lifting restrictions on business and travel too early, which would allow the virus to flare up.
“They highlight the significant risks of opening up too quickly,” Dr. Levine said during a daily press briefing on the new coronavirus, which causes the COVID-19 disease. “We are going in a very careful way. Data over time is the most important metric.”
The IHME forecast is widely cited, but it is only one of several that are used in making
decisions about when to lift travel and other restrictions that were imposed to tamp down transmission of COVID-19. Carnegie Mellon University and the University of Pittsburgh have developed other guides that are used by public health officials.
As of Tuesday, the total number of COVID-19 cases was 50,957 in Pennsylvania, which includes 3,012 deaths. The number of cases was up 865 and deaths up 554 from Monday due to data reconciliation, rather than a jump in the number of each, Dr. Levine said. A jump was expected because there is often a lag in data reporting over the weekend.
Twenty-four counties will transition from red to yellow Friday, a designation that lifts closure orders for manufacturers, retail businesses, offices and nonprofits. Allegheny is among the counties still classified in the red zone, where most businesses remain closed.
Allegheny reported seven new deaths and 10 cases related to COVID-19, according to the latest figures released Tuesday. The county had reported two consecutive days without a death prior to Tuesday’s report.
Deaths also were reported in other Western Pennsylvania counties, including five in Beaver, and one each in Armstrong, Indiana and Lawrence.
With the new data, Allegheny has 1,375 total cases and 109 deaths since the first case was announced March 14, the highest totals in Western Pennsylvania.
Of the cases, 1,317 are confirmed and 58 are probable. Of the deaths, 99 are confirmed and 10 are probable. Through Tuesday, there have been 244 hospitalizations in the county. Of them, 106 needed to visit the intensive care unit and 62 required mechanical ventilation. So far, the county has performed 18,873 tests.
Statewide, nursing home deaths also saw a large increase over Monday’s total, with 383 new deaths, including 14 in Western Pennsylvania — all seven of Allegheny County’s, all five of Beaver County’s, one in Armstrong County and one in Westmoreland County (the Westmoreland coroner reported no new deaths, but the state figures have lagged the coroner’s).
Philadelphia County continues to have the highest totals in the state with 13,563 cases and 627 deaths. On Tuesday, its number of deaths spiked more than 200 over Monday’s total.
Here are the positive cases across Western Pennsylvania on Tuesday:
• Allegheny: 1,375 (up 10 from Monday)
• Armstrong: 53 (up 1)
• Beaver: 466 (up 8)
• Butler: 184 (up 4)
• Cambria: 34 (no change)
• Clarion: 23 (no change)
• Clearfield: 21 (no change)
• Crawford: 19 (no change)
• Erie: 93 (up 2)
• Fayette: 84 (up 1)
• Forest: 7 (no change)
• Greene: 27 (no change)
• Indiana: 74 (up 4)
• Jefferson: 6 (no change)
• Lawrence: 67 (up 2)
• Mercer: 67 (up 1)
• Somerset: 30 (no change)
• Venango: 7 (no change)
• Washington: 120 (no change)
• Westmoreland: 405 (up 2) Here are the number of deaths across Western Pennsylvania on Tuesday:
• Allegheny: 109 (up 7 from Monday)
• Armstrong: 3 (up 1)
• Beaver: 73 (up 5)
• Butler: 6 (no change)
• Cambria: 1 (no change)
• Clarion: 1 (no change)
• Erie: 2 (no change)
• Fayette: 4 (no change)
• Greene: 1 (no change)
• Indiana: 5 (up 1)
• Lawrence: 7 (up 1)
• Mercer: 1 (no change)
• Somerset: 1 (no change)
• Washington: 2 (no change)
• Westmoreland: 31 (no change)
Westmoreland County’s fatality data is based on the county coroner’s website.
Nursing and personal care homes
The state has released data — organized by county — about cases and deaths at nursing and personal care homes. Here’s information about Western Pennsylvania, based on Tuesday’s figures, with increases in deaths noted.
• Allegheny: 35 facilities, 306 cases among residents, 96 cases among employees, 86 deaths (up 7 from Monday)
• Armstrong: 1 facility, 5 cases among residents, 4 cases among employees, 1 death (up 1)
• Beaver: 3 facilities, 305 cases among residents, 23 cases among employees, 66 deaths (up 5)
• Butler: 5 facilities, 12 cases among residents, 10 cases among employees, 2 deaths (no change)
• Cambria: 1 facility, 1 case among residents, 0 cases among employees, 0 deaths (no change)
• Clarion: 1 facility, 1 case among residents, 1 case among employees, 0 deaths (no change)
• Clearfield: 2 facilities, 2 cases among residents, 0 cases among employees, 0 deaths (no change)
• Erie: 4 facilities, 3 cases among residents, 2 cases among employees, 0 deaths (no change)
• Fayette: 1 facility, 3 cases among residents, 0 cases among employees, 1 death (no change)
• Indiana: 3 facilities, 13 cases among residents, 1 cases among employees, 4 deaths (no change)
• Lawrence: 2 facilities, 0 cases among residents, 2 cases among employees, 0 deaths (no change)
• Mercer: 1 facility, 1 case among residents, 0 cases among employees, 0 deaths (no change)
• Washington: 3 facilities, 6 cases among residents, 2 cases among employees, 1 death (no change)
• Westmoreland: 8 facilities, 129 cases among residents, 30 cases among employees, 24 deaths (up 1)
• Pennsylvania: 495 facilities, 9,625 cases among residents, 1,284 cases among employees, 2,029 deaths (383 new)