Rule changes could have big impact
If/when Major League Baseball comes back this summer, it almost assuredly will look different.
The return-to-play proposals that have been floated almost all include the use of the designated hitter in the National League. There’s also talk about one or two doubleheaders per week, with each of those games lasting seven innings, in addition to the possibility that there could be some severe realignment with, American and National leagues disappearing. Aside from the possibility of sharing a division with the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox and Washington Nationals, the potential rule changes in 2020 could benefit the Pirates.
“I think the most important thing is we’re back to playing,” manager Derek Shelton said Monday. “I think we all want that, and
whatever set of boundaries or guidelines that we have, we’ll adjust and go with it.”
To work through how potential rule changes could impact the Pirates, this discussion has three sections: What we know will happen, what probably will happen and what should happen.
What we know
The biggest part of what we know involves the new rule for bullpens, where relievers have to face three hitters or finish an inning. As far as left-handed specialists or relievers that might be used in matchup-based situations — the type of thing MLB seemingly wants to reduce — this should not impact the Pirates in a huge way.
None of their relievers are terribly split-heavy, with Richard Rodriguez actually faring better vs. left-handers (.653 OPS against) than righthanded hitters (.766) throughout his career. Shelton probably wouldn’t have mixed and matched with setup man Kyle Crick, and he surely wouldn’t have done it with closer Keone Kela.
Which leaves Edgar Santana, Nick Burdi, Rodriguez and Michael Feliz to worry about. Burdi’s sample size is small. Feliz has a .754 OPS lifetime against right-handers, .748 against left-handers.
Santana has been better against left-handers (.786 OPS vs, 594), but his splits might not be the biggest factor. The right-hander is coming off Tommy John surgery and looked lights out in the spring.
What we expect
The biggest focal point should be the DH, because it actually means much to the Pirates.
Even baseball’s biggest purist might have a tough time citing reasons to avoid using it, especially after pitchers slashed .128/.160/.162 in 2019 and struck out 43.5 percent of the time. The DH would make games more entertaining, and likely make them faster, with fewer changes to protect the pitcher’s spot in the order.
Pirates fans probably will want to make Josh Bell the team’s regular DH because he can hit and has struggled defensively. Bell made 13 errors in 2019, second most for anyone at his position, but during spring training he worked an improved throwing motion and seemed ready to take a couple steps forward with his fielding.
Furthermore, he is not the only Pirate who would make for a smart play in that spot.
EDITOR’S NOTE — With Major League Baseball hoping to return soon, the Post-Gazette’s Jason Mackey and Mike Persak will analyze 20 issues related to the Pirates. They will run each weekday online through May 22 and will appear in print (or via other PG digital platforms) on Sunday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.
The Pirates could need to keep Colin Moran’s bat in the lineup, while his glove remains a gigantic concern. They also need an injection of power from Gregory Polanco, which could be compromised if the right fielder can’t stay healthy.
“I think it’s something where we’ll probably float different guys through there,” Shelton said. “. . . But I don’t see that we would David Ortiz it or Travis Hafner it, where one guy is doing it all the time.”
The tangential effect, in addition to the expansion of rosters, could mean big things for top position player prospect, Ke’Bryan Hayes. He was ticketed to start the season with Class AAA Indianapolis. Now, the three-time Gold Glove winner in the minors could be the opening day third baseman, with Moran the DH.
What should happen
Doubleheaders of two seven-inning games are a start, but MLB will likely take a look at more substantial changes. Think about this scenario: The Pirates are in Arizona. It has been 100 or more degrees all week. They have a doubleheader Sunday, when it’s supposed to go up to 110. On Saturday night, do you really think anyone wants to play 18 innings and finish the game at 2 a.m. Sunday?
For functional purposes, it might be time to entertain extra innings with a runner starting on second base or, like the Korea Baseball Organization, simply being OK with ties in the regular season.
Keeping games a reasonable length given the time constraints — both daily and beyond — should be something on which MLB focuses. Maybe that means the universal use of a pitch clock. Or, like the NHL, attaching some sort of cost to unsuccessful challenges.
MLB also could test drive a few things it has been flirting with for years. There has been talk about using robotic umpires but concern over whether the system would be up and running in such a short period of time. What about only using the robotic umpires after a six- or sevenrun lead has been established? Or, even more severe, what about calling games that have become blowouts, saving the wear and tear on players and keeping the featured TV product as watchable as possible?
Those ideas are less concrete than the three-batter minimum or even the use of the DH.
• Statistically speaking: The players the Pirates used as their designated hitter in 2019 combined for 11 RBIs, which tied the San Franciso Giants for the National League lead in that category. The Pirates got four home runs from the DH spot (second) and posted an OPS of .950, which was third in the NL.
• Know this: Bell has been the DH 10 times in his career. He’s hitting .325 (13 for 40) in that situation, with eight extra-base hits, four home runs and 11 RBIs. In those games — against American League teams on the road — Bell has a slugging percentage of .750 and an OPS of 1.167.
• They said it: “The rule is going to change how people build their lineups and how managers manage their bullpen with right-left splits. There are a lot factors that come into play.” — Shelton on the three-batter minimum rule.