Trade deadline still mystery, but it’s critical in many ways
Nobody really knows what MLB’s trade deadline will look like this year.
First of all, the date — July 31 — almost certainly will be moved if the season starts in early July. And even before the COVID-19 pandemic, there already was steam building among owners to push the deadline back to mid-August.
Now, with a shortened season at best, nobody can be certain how it might affect a deadline.
Some teams could become more aggressive, knowing that the salary situation is up in the air and a one-year rental who swings a couple of games in your favor could be more impactful if there are fewer games. Others m,ght not want to spend more money than they have to in a season guaranteed to have lower revenues
But assuming there is a trade deadline in a shortened season, how might the Pirates deal with it?
The Pirates, of course, are not predicted to contend for a World Series this season, so based on last season and the fact that the
NL Central likely will be strong again this season, who might the Pirates deal at the deadline in hopes of getting some promising prospects for the future?
Top of the list: pitcher Chris Archer. The 31-year-old righthander struggled last year, and with only one year plus a team option remaining on his
contract, the logical move would seem to be a trade, provided he bounces back from last year and finds some semblance of what made him an All-Star with the Tampa Bay Rays.
While the Pirates need Archer to turn things around quickly to realize maximum value in a trade, his contract could actually work for them.
One possible trading partner might be the Los Angeles Dodgers, who lost National League ERA leader Hyun-Jin Ryu to free agency. They signed veterans David Price and Alex Wood, but if Price or Wood can’t carry the full load of being the No. 2 guy in the rotation behind Clayton Kershaw, Archer might be able to step in and help carry the load. Plus, the Dodgers have an extremely strong minor league system, with five prospects ranked in Fangraphs’ top 100, and they might be willing to part with one of those building blocks in order to bolster their rotation.
The Los Angeles Angels spent big this offseason, locking down third baseman Anthony Rendon and pitchers Dylan Bundy and Julio Teheran. Still, the Angels might be looking for another arm to add to the rotation to support what they hope will be an extremely strong offense.
The Angels’ minor league system is weaker, ranked 26th by MLB Pipeline, but they do have a lot of young outfielders and middle infielders with tools, and some young pitchers, that might interest the Pirates.
Closer Keone Kela also is a strong candidate to be moved. He isn’t as contract controllable as Archer, since he only has one year left on his deal with no team option, but that likely wouldn’t make him less attractive for teams looking to add to their bullpens.
Kela has a career ERA of 3.23 — inflated a bit by a bad 2016 season with the Texas Rangers — and he’ll get an opportunity to prove himself in the closer’s role after spending last year as the eighth-inning setup man for the Pirates. He is one of the strongest closers likely to be on the market, plus he has the flexibility to fill the set-up role if needed.
The other most likely candidates to be dealt are outfielder Jarrod Dyson and lefthander Derek Holland, who both signed one-year contracts in the offseason.
Both have their flaws, but Dyson possesses speed and base-stealing acumen that very few players can rival,
EDITOR’S NOTE — With Major League Baseball hoping to return soon, the Post-Gazette’s Jason Mackey and Mike Persak will analyze 20 issues related to the Pirates. They will run each weekday online through May 22 and will appear in print (or via other PG digital platforms) on Sunday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.
and Holland has pitched in two World Series in his past. Neither would likely fetch a staggering return, and they both have plenty to prove before drawing trade interest. Their cheap, short contracts make them easy to move, though.
Plus, similar to Archer, the Pirates could cast a wide net with both players. Dyson’s strength is his defense, and he is a scary threat on the basepaths, making him attractive to a contender in need of a fourth outfielder.
Holland, amid a 2019 season in which his ERA was above 6.00, still shuts down left-handed hitters. In 99 atbats against him, left-handers hit just .192 against him. That, too, is extremely useful for a contender looking to round out its team.
Beyond that, it’s hard to see a lot of movement for the Pirates. First-year general manager Ben Cherington will certainly be looking to see who fits into their long-term plans. Younger players will presumably be given a longer leash; veterans who don’t fit the multiyear plan might be shopped around.
But even four trades would be a lot in a normal year. It’s hard to say if that’s even plausible this year until the trade market, or even the deadline, becomes clearer.
• Statistically speaking: The Pirates’ most common trade partner over the years has been the Cleveland Indians (18 trades). The New York Yankees are next with 15 trades.
• Know this: The trade deadline is typically about two-thirds of the way through an MLB season. Assuming this year’s season is 82 games, starts on July 1 and there are six to seven games per week, that would put the deadline somewhere around Aug. 24.
• They said it: “[Jarrod Dyson] is a veteran guy who has played on a lot of good teams. He’s played on a World Series winner. If you spend five minutes around the guy, you see how affable he is and how much he likes to talk. I encouraged him to do that.” — Derek Shelton.