Contract Bridge

In many contracts, declarer frequently must guess how the opponents’ cards are likely to be divided and then proceed accordingly. Sometimes, though, it may be possible to find an approach that makes any guesswork unnecessary.

Take this case where you’re in five clubs doubled and West leads the nine of spades, on which East plays the ten. You are immediately faced with a crucial decision. If you think East has seven spades for his three-spade bid, you must win the trick in order to prevent the ace from being ruffed on the next play.

But if you think East may have #started with only six spades, you should let him win with the first trick. Otherwise, if you took the ace and led a trump, you would go down after West won with the ace and returned his remaining spade. East would then play a third spade to promote a second trump trick for West.

Although there is no way of knowing for sure whether East started with six or seven spades, you can solve the problem by catering to both possibilities as follows: Win the first spade with the ace, cash the ace of hearts, lead a diamond to the king and return the queen of hearts. After East follows low, you discard the six of spades.

West wins with the king but cannot stop you from scoring 11 tricks. The only other trick he can get is the ace of clubs, since he cannot put East on lead to produce the overruffing position.

While this approach does not solve the question of how many spades East started with, it far more importantly brings home the contract.