Be honest about what is unknown
The frustration of monthslong restrictions brought on by the coronavirus pandemic has many people desperate for encouraging news, but that information must be based on facts and scientific data.
When a top official from the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center announced recently that the strain of the virus causing a rise in cases locally was a less-severe version, there was reason for optimism. Perhaps the virus was less deadly than previous strains and could be treated and controlled better.
Unfortunately, a deeper dive into the research behind that assertion shows there is little scientific evidence to support the claim
— and that is troubling. If people believe there is a lower risk associated with the coronavirus, that can lead to relaxed safety measures to control the spread and the possibility of increased infections.
Dr. Graham Snyder, director of infection prevention, said on July 9 that reports of a strain “that seems to transmit easier but is less deadly” was what UPMC was detecting here, and that “our data supports those characteristics.”
When Spotlight PA, an independent newsroom based in Harrisburg, reviewed the studies cited by UPMC, it found the assertion was not supported by current research. Experts in epidemiology and virology interviewed by Spotlight also found a lack of evidence to show the strain was any less severe.
In fact, one of the studies referenced by a UPMC spokesperson actually contradicted the notion of a lesssevere strain. Researchers looking at the new strain of the virus wrote that they “did not find evidence” of impact on disease severity and there was likewise no evidence it was any less severe.
A second scientific paper provided by UPMC to Spotlight stated that further studies would be needed to determine the severity of the strain.
Given the unknown and seemingly ever-changing nature of the coronavirus, it’s not surprising that medical experts might disagree on aspects of the disease. UPMC officials have challenged state and local directives regarding the disease previously, most notably on its decision to resume elective surgeries despite a statewide ban.
UPMC officials were right to point out that hospitalizations are not climbing dramatically in Allegheny County and that the mortality rate remains low. That is good news. At the same time, however, the number of positive cases of COVID-19 is spiking in the county and across the country, and that is reason for concern.
Local health officials attribute the rise to the relaxed restrictions in early June that led many — mostly young people — to frequent bars and restaurants without wearing masks or maintaining social distancing. The reason hospitalizations aren’t rising as dramatically could be because younger people are not showing serious symptoms, or because there are delays in testing and confirming the disease, or because they are young and have more strength in resisting the disease.
But that doesn’t mean the strain is any less severe or wouldn’t be just as threatening to elderly residents or people with compromised health systems.
UPMC needs to take a deeper look and share those findings, no matter how it complicates what it thought it knew. This is a pandemic; no science will ever be perfect or ahead of the disease. But we have to be honest about what we don’t know and when we are wrong.