A long way to November
Another day, another poll showing Joe Biden leading Donald Trump in Pennsylvania. It’s also a reminder that polling fell woefully short in 2016, and it’s still a long way until November.
What does seem clear is Pennsylvania, especially southwestern Pennsylvania, will have a lot to say about who our next president will be.
According to the latest Franklin & Marshall College Poll, which is the longest-running political survey in Pennsylvania, Mr. Biden had a 9-point lead in the state. The poll was conducted prior to Mr. Biden’s selection of Sen. Kamala Harris as his running mate.
One of the unique parts of the F&M poll is that it breaks down results for sections across the state. It shows Mr. Trump leading southwestern Pennsylvania, 48% to Mr. Biden’s 43%; Central Pennsylvania, 54% to 36%; and northwestern Pennsylvania, 48% to 31%. It has Mr. Biden ahead in Philadelphia and southeastern Pennsylvania, 71% to 20%, and northeastern Pennsylvania, 56% to 39%.
Locally, Mr. Biden is expected to win Allegheny County but lose the rest of southwestern Pennsylvania. The question is how large will the victory margins be.
It’s noteworthy that Mr. Trump crushed Hillary Clinton in Beaver, Fayette, Greene, Washington and Westmoreland counties by 108,564 votes. And remember, Mr. Trump won Pennsylvania by only 44,292 votes.
Not surprisingly, the poll reported that 95% of liberals are backing Mr. Biden, while 86% of conservatives are supporting Mr. Trump. Part of Mr. Biden’s lead can be attributed to moderate voters, who favor him 63% to 22%.
Democrats would be advised not to plan any victory parades just yet. Mr. Trump is used to being behind in the polls. In 2016, he trailed Ms. Clinton in almost all the polls before his surprise victory. The F&M poll for July 2016 showed Ms. Clinton with an 11-point lead. She had the same margin in F&M’s Nov. 1 poll.
Mr. Trump has long claimed that his supporters are reluctant to be truthful with pollsters. He also maintains that Republicans are underrepresented in most of the polls.
In an interview after the election, F&M Poll director Terry Madonna said his survey missed significant developments in the final week of the race, such as FBI Director James Comey reviving an investigation into Ms. Clinton’s use of a private email server. Mr. Madonna added that the poll did not register the intensity of Mr. Trump’s support in the state’s small towns and rural areas or slippage in Ms. Clinton’s support in urban cities such as Philadelphia.
And no matter what the polls say, we won’t know the winner until after Election Day.