It will be difficult to seal any deal
It’s hardly an ideal situation for Pirates general manager Ben Cherington.
Had this trade deadline occurred during a normal season, with expected performances to peddle, Cherington might’ve had more to sell. He also would be able to get a better read on opposing teams’ top prospects, especially those down-the-road guys who might not be working out at alternate training sites.
At the same time, for Cherington to take meaningful steps toward the Pirates’ long-term rebuild — or whatever they want to call it — he’ll likely need to get a couple of things done by the Aug. 31 trade deadline.
While proposing full trade packages can be tricky, if not impossible, the hope here is to outline Cherington’s inventory:
The attractive options
Most likely to go is closer Keone Kela, currently sidelined with right forearm tightness. An unrestricted free agent at season’s end, Kela won’t be back; so, get something for him.
Kela’s season was delayed by COVID-19, but he has looked terrific since returning, reaching 97 mph with his fastball and showcasing that hammer curve. This from someone who allowed one earned run with 25 strikeouts over his final 24 appearances of 2019.
If this was only about ability, the Pirates would have no issue moving Kela. But it’s not. This latest arm issue is the third Kela has endured since the start of the 2019 season, even though it appears minor. And Kela also would come with questions given his reputation, whether those are fair or not.
Nevertheless, assuming Kela shows this week that he’s healthy, there’s a good chance a contender will acquire Kela for bullpen help.
An under-the-radar option might be Richard Rodriguez, who made a careerhigh 72 appearances last season, tied for eighth among National League relievers. Not only has Rodriguez pitched a lot, but he has been solid; among NL relievers with at least 55 appearances since June 1, 2019, his ERA of 2.47 is the lowest.
Although he is 30, Rodriguez has three more years of club control, as he’s arbitration-eligible for the first time this winter. Also, his full-season salary for 2020 ($633,500) is crazy cheap.
The other player on this list is Adam Frazier, who attracted interest at MLB’s winter meetings after he was a Gold Glove finalist in 2019. At the plate, Frazier slashed .278/.336/.417 with an OPS of .753 in 152 games. This week could be big for Frazier, who seems to be breaking out of his slump. The 27-year-old has 3 home runs, 7 RBIs and a .250 average over his past 11 games (10 starts). If Frazier gets hot, the interest might spark, too.
The second tier
Good starting pitchers are never a bad thing to be peddling at the trade deadline. Believe it or not, the Pirates might have a couple of those. While Derek Holland — 34 and on an expiring contract — might be the most obvious, Trevor Williams provides an intriguing option.
MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reported that the Toronto Blue Jays were considering Williams and Chad Kuhl. It wasn’t surprising given the familiarity between the front offices, but it would make sense for several teams to look at Williams, and here’s why:
Contract-wise, Williams is 28 and headed into his second year of arbitration. His 2020 salary number is $2.825 million, and that should increase again this winter. With Williams unlikely to be around for the long haul, it might make sense to make the move now.
In five starts, Williams has a 3.70 ERA, down from 5.38 a season ago. Although the sample size is obviously small, Williams is averaging a career-high 8.51 strikeouts per nine innings and has gotten back to inducing weak contact. Among MLB starters with at least 20 innings pitched, Williams has the 14th-lowest rate of hard contact (34.7%), according to FanGraphs.
Williams is also plus-plus in the character department. He’s personable and well-liked by teammates, the perfect guy to jump aboard a new team and assimilate in no time.
Holland is a wild card. He has pitched five times for the Pirates, four of those in starts. His 6.17 ERA isn’t great, but it’s also misleading. Detroit rocked Holland for nine earned runs and five homers Aug. 8 in an 115 Pirates loss. If you extract that outing, Holland’s ERA drops to 3.44.
Even though he has got a fun personality and has provided the Pirates with veteran leadership, there’s zero reason for them to keep Holland. If there’s a deal there, make it.
As for Kuhl, there are two schools of thought here. One, as Kuhl is coming off Tommy John surgery, the Pirates could decide to cash in his stock now, believing that he won’t stay healthy long term. That’s unlikely.
It makes more sense for them ride this out. Kuhl has shown himself to be a different pitcher post-Tommy John surgery, one with elite breaking stuff. If they pull the trigger on a trade now when Kuhl has potentially remade himself and matured, they could be looking at another situation where a pitcher goes elsewhere and truly finds himself. Think Charlie Morton 2.0.
The smart move is to stick with Kuhl, trust that he’ll stay healthy, and that what we’ve seen thus far will continue.
The questions
When the Pirates acquired Jarrod Dyson this offseason, outside of his hilarious quote, the most obvious reaction might’ve been this: If Dyson plays well, there’s no way he finishes the season with them. That seems tough to comprehend now. Although Dyson picked up two hits Sunday, he still was slashing .167/.231/.167 entering Tuesday. For a 36-year-old, that’s not going to net a trade. Dyson’s speed has been evident with four stolen bases. He also has defended well, and he’s been a solid veteran in taking Cole Tucker under his wing in center. That’s what he should be doing. But a trade is likely too tough to pull off given how little Dyson has produced, unless he goes absolutely bonkers before Monday.
Erik Gonzalez is another interesting case. Before this season, the Pirates likely would’ve traded Gonzalez for a bag of balls. Now, it’s complicated. And it might be out of their hands.
It’s unclear whether the Pirates see Gonzalez, 28, as part of their long-term plans as a utility type or whether they might try to capitalize on his strong start by getting something — anything — for him at the deadline. The good news is that Gonzalez makes just $725,000 and the Pirates also have him under club control for another two years. So, they don’t have to do anything now.
But for the same reason that they might want to move Frazier, they have young guys they’ll need to play: Ke’Bryan Hayes at third; Oneil Cruz and/or Liover Peguero at shortstop; Nick Gonzales at short or second; and even Jason Martin and Jared Oliva in the outfield, which could return Tucker to the infield. This one might hinge on outside interest.