Let’s think ahead
Disappointing end puts too many questions in play
In the aftermath of a second consecutive postseason that ended stunningly early for the Penguins, countless angry yinzers and a few hoarse sports talk yakkers were eager to offer up suggestions for the organization’s offseason agenda.
Trade this guy. Fire that one. Don’t you dare bring back that defenseman.
Some said the window is closed. Others said sweeping changes are needed.
Amid all that chatter, Hall of Fame general manager Jim Rutherford seemingly has pulled a Patrick Roy, plugging the two Stanley Cup rings he won here into his ears.
Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang don’t appear to be going anywhere, definitely not Sid. The coach is on the hot seat but still here. And the Penguins are saying, with both words and actions, to expect the same brand of hockey.
There will be more tweaks. A goalie might get traded before you finish reading this. The bottom six will get shuffled again. There will be at least one new defender on the bottom pair. But, for better or worse, next season’s squad might not look all that much different than the one that got upset by Montreal a month ago.
What should we make of the moves Rutherford already has made? What comes next? And will it be enough for the Penguins to be contenders again?
To answer those questions, we reached out to two former general managers in Brian Burke and Craig Button, and with longtime NHL forward Anson Carter, who has been one of the most insightful TV analysts in these playoffs.
All three expressed concern about the trajectory of the team after another dud. Reasons ranged from coaching to complacency to goaltending to depth. But none are ruling out the Penguins, not with Crosby and Malkin still around.
Sullivan in the spotlight
What went wrong versus the Canadiens, the lowest seed in the NHL’s 24- team playoff field? A better approach might be to ask if anything went right.
Carter didn’t think Crosby looked healthy and said the Penguins didn’t have the secondary scoring to overcome quiet games from the captain and Malkin.
Burke also pointed to a lack of production from Crosby and Malkin, who totaled four points between them. Additionally, he mentioned their disappointing power play, inconsistent goaltending and defensive lapses against Montreal.
Button was alarmed by an absence of urgency — again — from the Penguins and questioned why Sullivan and his assistants failed to make adjustments. He cited the Dallas Stars, with whom he won the Stanley Cup as an executive in 1999, as one team that took advantage of the 20- week- long pandemic pause and adjusted its approach, getting blue- liners more involved in the attack.
“You get all that time to evaluate and look for solutions, figuring out what you can do better. You know what your problems were. And then you come back and don’t do anything differently?” he said. “I’ll be honest: I think Mike Sullivan is a good coach. I wasn’t impressed with his coaching in these playoffs.”
Button added: “He did a really good job with the group through their injuries. But their record wasn’t very good with a full roster. That’s got to be a concern.”
The Penguins were one of the NHL’s best teams when Crosby returned to the ice after his core muscle injury. But they lost their structure, resolve and a bunch of games, going 3- 8- 0 to close the regular season. They have won two of their past 13 playoff games.
Rutherford is keeping the two- time Cup- winning head coach behind the bench. But gone are loyal assistants Jacques Martin, Mark Recchi and Sergei Gonchar. They were replaced by former Washington Capitals coach Todd Reirden and Mike Vellucci, the American Hockey League’s coach of the year in 2018- 19.
“They’re both good coaches,” Burke said. “But it’s also a clear message [ to Sullivan] that ‘ we have people who can do this if we have to make a change.’ ”
Carter, a former journeyman winger who was Sullivan’s teammate in Boston and played for Rutherford in Carolina, believes the Penguins need to evolve.
“I don’t know if teams have passed them by [ in terms of playing fast], but they’ve caught up,” he said. “The way they played [ in 2016 and 2017] was so different. Everybody was so focused on heavy hockey and they brought the speed game with north- south, two- zone hockey. Everyone was caught off guard.”
“I’ll be honest: I think Mike Sullivan is a good coach. I wasn’t impressed with his coaching in these playoffs.”
— Craig Button, TSN analyst
Still sticking with speed
Early in the offseason, Sullivan said he didn’t think the Penguins needed a new on- ice identity. Rutherford’s first big move suggests he agrees. He brought back Kaspari Kapanen, a burner who would smoke most NHLers in a race.
Kapanen joins Brandon Tanev and Jason Zucker,
two other speedy wingers whom Rutherford added in the past 14 months in the hopes of recreating the break- neck pace that pushed the Penguins to a couple of parades in 2016 and 2017.
It’s fair to question if that style can still work if their stars slow down. Malkin is
34. Crosby and Letang are
33. Combined, they missed 50 games in 2019- 20.
But first, let’s question if the Penguins could have done better than Kapanen.
They acquired him during the second round of the playoffs, eliminating eight trade partners. Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reported that some teams were frustrated they did not get a chance to bid on the No. 15 pick in a strong draft.
Couple that with another story from The Athletic’s Pierre LeBrun reporting that Kyle Dubas of the Toronto Maple Leafs was praised by his GM peers for the trade, and you wonder what that pick might have fetched closer to the draft.
Rutherford isn’t one to wait. And even if the opportunity cost of pouncing on that deal wasn’t worth it, Kapanen could still end up being a valuable player.
“I wouldn’t expect 60 points from him, but Kaspari can absolutely help this team,” Button said. “He’s a catalyst. He’s competitive. He creates turnovers.”
The 24- year- old right winger’s career high for points in a season is just 44. The Penguins hope he can blow by that skating next to Crosby or Malkin.
“He never seemed to get top- six consideration here,” said Burke, who lives in the Toronto area and is now an analyst for Sportsnet. “I don’t know if he has top- six [ scoring ability]. But the Penguins drafted him. They would know better.”
By pursuing Kapanen, the Penguins signaled that they believe they can win their third championship in six years the same way they won the first two.
“You say you’re going to keep doing the same things?” Button said. “OK, then don’t be surprised if you get the same results [ as this past season].”
Crossroads in the crease
In 2017, Matt Murray became the only goalie in NHL history to win the Stanley Cup twice as a rookie, persuading the Penguins to give up Marc- Andre Fleury in the expansion draft. He ranks 37th in the NHL in save percentage since.
After giving up a backbreaking goal in Game 3 of the Canadiens series, he was benched. There’s a good chance he never wears a Penguins sweater again.
Murray and Tristan Jarry will be restricted free agents. Rutherford will tell anyone listening that he is talking trades with other GMs. That poor woman behind the deli counter just wants to know how thinly he wants his turkey sliced.
Which goalie will get dealt? It’s not as simple as picking the better guy. Both their respective trade values and salary expectations factor into the calculus.
Murray could get more than $ 6 million for 2020- 21 if he goes to arbitration. He sought a higher salary on a long- term contract last summer. Jarry, meanwhile, is probably looking at a shorter deal between $ 3 million and $ 4 million. Despite making the All- Star Game in 2019- 20, he’s still relatively unproven.
“That’s the trade- off. You make a deal to acquire Jarry, you’re betting on future performance. You don’t have to bet on that with Matt Murray. He’s got it. He’s got jewelry,” Burke said. “Both will have attraction. Both will have value.”
Murray, with those two Cup rings, will likely fetch more in a trade if a contender such as Colorado or Toronto feels he can be the backbone of another title team. The return could include multiple future assets and/ or useful veterans.
If that is indeed the case, Carter thinks it’s time to move on from Murray.
The NBC Sports analyst wondered if a reunion with Fleury, who could be on the outs in Vegas, is in the cards. That certainly would bring a burst of energy to the locker room. But Fleury fans shouldn’t get their hopes up. Given his sizable salary, it would presumably take Vegas buying him out to make it possible.
Barring a surprise, Casey DeSmith will back up Murray or Jarry in 2020- 21.
Last week, Rutherford said he doesn’t feel “urgency” to move a goalie. But with several NHL starters about to become available via free agency or trade, the GM might decide to make a deal early in the offseason game of musical chairs.
“I would solve that conundrum next,” said Burke, a Cup- winning GM. “See which goalie commands a higher price. Then worry about the rest after the draft.”
OK, so what’s the rest?
The Penguins feel the addition of Kapanen has solidified their top two lines. And Rutherford last week expressed confidence in his top four on defense. If those are indeed set in stone, from where does further improvement come?
“It’s the bottom six,” Carter said. “When you look back at the HBK line with [ Phil] Kessel, [ Carl] Hagelin and [ Nick] Bonino, that’s what is missing. If Sid isn’t 100% and Geno is not motivated, you need somebody to pick up the slack.”
The third- line center spot has been a revolving door since Bonino left in 2017. Nick Bjugstad and Jared McCann, two players who were slotted into that role the past two seasons, are trade candidates this offseason. Burke is high on both players. But he expects at least one of them to get dealt.
Patrick Marleau is a goner. Probably Conor Sheary, too. Dominik Simon is a restricted free agent. And Zach AstonReese is out until 2021 after shoulder surgery.
Carter thinks the Penguins should add more “grit” and physicality to the bottom six without sacrificing speed. He referenced Matt Cullen as the type of desperate player they need more of. Button also independently brought up Cullen.
“You can’t talk enough about the hunger. Are they still as hungry as they were when they were trying to go back- to- back?” Carter said. “I think Jim Rutherford is trying to make sure complacency doesn’t seep into that locker room.”
Button, who specializes in scouting for TSN, thinks a few prospects could provide a spark. He said 19year- old Samuel Poulin is “a big, strong, physical kid” who may be ready. Fellow wingers Drew O’Connor and Kasper Bjorkqvist intrigue Button as bottom- six options. And he’s a “big fan” of blue liner P. O. Joseph.
Joseph, a left- hander who made strides under Vellucci in Wilkes- Barre/ Scranton, will get a chance to earn a spot in training camp. Jack Johnson would be his competition unless the Penguins opt to dump Johnson and his $ 3.25 million salary.
The Penguins are not planning to re- sign freeagent Justin Schultz, so there will at least be one change to a third pair that was a mess against Montreal. Will they roll with Chad Ruhwedel on the right? Will they bring in another puck- mover like Schultz or Trevor Daley? Or maybe they’ll go with a beefier third pair?
Without major changes to the core or a new head coach or a new philosophy, it will be up to Rutherford to find the right mix when it comes to that supporting cast. He made all the right moves from 2015 to 2017. Can he do it again?
“I do a lot of interviews and I’m happy to give GMs advice. Jimmy’s one I would hesitate about giving advice to because he’s really good at his job,” Burke said. “I love his temperament. He’s sour about this. … I still like their team and I love Jimmy’s aggressive instincts. But I’m not sure teams haven’t blown by them.”