The state of the pandemic

Allegheny County has suffered in recent months due to COVID- 19, but the news isn’t all grim. A review of county and state dashboard data reveals some positive trends as the Pittsburgh area continues to battle against the virus.

To recap, the county first locked down in March and experienced only low levels of infection and death. But as the area began opening up in the green phase of the state’s reopening plan, cases surged, prompting Gov. Tom Wolf to reactivate restrictions on dining and gatherings.

Different interpretations of the data suggest that lockdowns are either responsible for slowing the virus or merely a delaying tactic in its inevitable spread.

Since the spike, county cases have been dropping again overall to a low positivity rating in testing of only about 3% in August, though they’re ticking up slightly in September. This is an excellent figure. Trends in deaths, which spiked early on in the pandemic, did not flare up in the aftermath of the increase in cases in July.

Notably, an unbelievable 77% of all deaths in the county happened in long- term care facilities, or 248 out of 349 deaths as of Sept. 4. Additionally, 83% of deaths have occurred in adults age 70 or older.

The fact that deaths did not rise equally with the case surge in July is excellent news and likely reflects that younger people were spreading the coronavirus more than seniors. It also indicates better treatment as health care providers learn to combat the virus as well as stronger protections around vulnerable nursing home populations.

Allegheny County also recently announced improved testing strategies for long- term care facilities using more rapid antigen tests, which should help officials better keep on top of potential outbreaks.

To keep some of these numbers in perspective, there have been 10,641 positive cases out of a population of about 1.2 million in the county, or only about .08%.

About .003% of the population has died due to COVID- 19.

The deaths are tragic. And none of this is to suggest that Pittsburgh is out of the woods or that it should relax in its vigilance.

Social distancing and masking and basic safety precautions must continue in order to keep cases manageable, particularly as schools and colleges reopen.

The lockdowns may be seem draconian, but balancing loss of life with economic loss should and will remain a difficult calculation.

At this time, restaurants and entertainment venues are open, albeit with restrictions. Services are available. Unemployment remains high but is falling slowly.

For the time being, however, this is the new normal. And there is much to be thankful for.