Polanco’s latest injury could dent GM’s plan
Trading Josh Bell for two pitchers was the most powerful indication yet of the Pirates’ direction under general manager Ben Cherington. They need more talent, the target date is still several years out, and pretty much nobody is off limits.
It’s a move that didn’t sit particularly well with fans, especially those who wish the club would just overtly say it’s rebuilding, but give Cherington this: There’s certainly nothing shy, emotional or middleof-the-road about what he’s doing.
Which actually brings us back to one of the important outliers in all of this: Gregory Polanco, who fractured his right wrist while playing winter ball in the Dominican
Republic.
The injury — technically a nondisplaced fracture of the triquetrum bone (outside) — has several different tentacles, none of which are particularly appealing to the Pirates.
First and foremost is whether Polanco will actually be ready for spring training. The Pirates said
said he’ll resume full baseball activities in four to six weeks, meaning he could easily be ready for the start of spring training.
That would be ideal for the Pirates if that’s what happens — if the immobilization of Polanco’s wrist fixes the problem — but it’s also hard to see him going from zero to 60 mph that quickly, especially given his injury history.
Yeah, that. Whether it’s been his shoulder, knee or ribs, the list is anything but short. In fact, before this past season, Pirates director of sports medicine Todd Tomczyk said Polanco will likely have left shoulder issues the rest of his career.
Remember to view this through the lens of the Bell trade. Present (team) performance does not matter. Return via trade trumps all. A broken- down Polanco with a bum wrist doesn’t help the cause.
Neither, of course, does what he’s done lately. In 2020, slashed.153/.214/.325 and struck out 37.4% of the time. It doesn’t get much better over the past two seasons, either: .197/. 257/. 374 and 33.4%. Winter ball saw Polanco at .197/.276/.342, though his strikeout rate (20.7% in 87 plate appearances) was a little better.
Want to laugh (or cry)? Of the 18 outfielders the Pirates have used since the start of 2019, Polanco has the worst WAR (- 0.9) according to FanGraphs, trailing middling pluggers such as JT Riddle, JB Shuck, Jake Elmore and Pablo Reyes.
If Cherington is going to successfully execute his scorched- earth plan, the Pirates must hope and pray for a hot start out of Polanco in 2021 to reverse some of these recent trends, and a wrist injury that delays or negatively impacts his spring training obviously makes getting that more difficult.
If Cherington can’t move Polanco, it’s pretty much assumed the Pirates will buy him out after 2021 for $3 million.
It’s far more palatable than paying him $12.5 million 2022, but it doesn’t address this season, when Polanco’s salary will be more than 19 times the major league minimum ($563,500).
Because MLB has a different financial structure than, say, the NFL, the Pirates must pay that whether Polanco has one functioning wrist, two or none. They can designate him for assignment, sure, but that doesn’t take his salary off their books.
Furthermore, you can count on one hand the number of players the Pirates have paid $11 million to play for them. It’s hard to see them paying that to open a roster spot and make Polanco go away. It feels like owner Bob Nutting would have Polanco vacuum the clubhouse or join the grounds crew before that happens.
Provided Polanco’s healthy enough to compete, expect to see plenty of him in right field. You’ll also likely hear about his exit velocity or baserunning, the two ways the Pirates sought to praise Polanco (read: keep his trade value on life support) in 2020.
The unfortunate part here might affect some of the Pirates’ young outfielders, guys who could actually use these reps and innings to get better and make an impression. This group includes Anthony Alford and Jared Oliva, plus a possible Oneil Cruz conversion from shortstop or Travis Swaggerty/ Cal Mitchell, if either shows they’re ready.
Even Cole Tucker, who will compete with Kevin Newman and Erik Gonzalez for the starting shortstop gig, could benefit from the extra at-bats if one of the latter two wins the job.
Cherington expects to sign a fourth outfielder before spring training, but it Pol an co likely won’ t be anything more than a placeholder. Think Guillermo Heredia from 2020. They have Polanco, and there’s little they can do except hope he produces and someone else takes notice.
It’s doubtful they’ll get much, but perhaps they could snooker an opposing team into a Class A prospect, a player the Pirates could shape into something over time.
Probably the only positive here involves Polanco’s long-and-loopy swing and the longshot possibility that perhaps another injury forces him to change.
Same as it’s been throughout his career, it takes Polanco entirely too long to load and bring the bat through the strike zone, making it tougher on him to adjust to breaking stuff.
A shorter and more direct path could theoretically allow Polanco to react better and not strike out so much, although it’s not an easy change to make.
Whether it’s age, injuries or the realization that this might be it if he doesn’t produce, perhaps this forces Polanco to adjust his approach once and for all.