Economics equate to transition period
Veteran team made the playoffs but the cost of doing business too high
Not old and slow, but old and pricier
It was almost 10 years ago now that NFL legend Warren Sapp derided the Steelers franchise in a memorable way.
“I have three things,” Sapp said on “Inside the NFL” after the team’s 35-7 seasonopening loss to the Ravens. “Old, slow, and it’s over.”
At the time, Sapp was specifically referencing aging veterans such as James Harrison, Troy Polamalu and Hines Ward. Harrison and Polamalu had Pro Bowl seasons and the Steelers went 12-4, but one could argue that Sapp was right. It was over for that era of Steelers football.
The Steelers lost their first playoff game after the 2011 season to Tim Tebow, then missed the postseason the next two years. That stretch led to Ward retiring, Harrison skipping town and Polamalu playing out one last season as a shell of his former self in 2014, when they’d lose in the wild-card round again.
Nearly a decade later, it’s not so much the Steelers getting old and slow as it is older and pricier. The defense turned in another season in which it ranked at or near the top of the NFL in most statistical categories, and Ben Roethlisberger played well enough that the front office still believes he’s worth bringing back for Year 18.
And yet, there comes a time for every team when young talent must force its way onto the field, not only to speed up their own development, but also to lower the cost of doing business. The salary cap prevents any general manager from loading up at every position with accomplished veterans, so you need to hit on draft picks who outperform their paychecks and find some ascending players who allow you to part ways with high-priced stars.
The Steelers already have made some tough calls to part with valuable contributors, of course. Of their three longest-tenured players — Roethlisberger, Cam Heyward and David DeCastro — only Heyward is signed beyond 2021. Of their drafts from 2013-16, only three players remain in Bud Dupree, Stephon Tuitt and Vince Williams, and Dupree is a near-lock to leave as an unrestricted free agent.
As far as that 2013 draft goes, Jarvis
Jones was supposed to be what T.J. Watt was four years later, and Le’Veon Bell is a strange case. He actually proved to be too good to stay here long term, in a sense. And in 2014, if not for a catastrophic, career-ending injury, it’s safe to say Ryan Shazier would still be a Steeler and still be playing at a high level going into his age-29 season alongside his draft class-mate Tuitt. In that same group, Martavis Bryant was a midround pick they actually hit on, though he was derailed by off-field issues.
But the return on the 2015-16 drafts has been and will be minimal, aside from Dupree blossoming into a star and Javon Hargrave performing so well as a thirdrounder that he, too, priced himself out of town. Instead of cementing himself as a longtime starter, Artie Burns’ demise forced the Steelers into having the highestpaid cornerback duo in the league for 2021 in Joe Haden and Steven Nelson.
Now, on to the 2017-19 drafts. Cam Sutton seems to be proving his value more and more by the season, to the point that he has made himself as much of a candidate to be re-signed as Mike Hilton. Fellow 2017 thirdrounder James Conner will be gone soon, but turned into a No. 1 running back as a third-round compensatory pick.
The 2018 draft’s middle rounds appear to be solid but not great, though Chuks Okorafor and Mason Rudolph can still pay off in a much bigger way than fifth-rounders Marcus Allen and Jaylen Samuels have. At least all four remain with the team in various roles.
As for 2019, it’s tough to see how anyone can complain about Diontae Johnson to this point. Despite the drops, his ascendance has helped make JuJu Smith-Schuster somewhat expendable. And while Justin Layne and Benny Snell haven’t shown much in two years, they’ve also been stuck behind entrenched starters. That’s where the Steelers could most use a drastic increase in production, from one of those two supplanting Conner and/or a veteran cornerback to make the money work in 2021.
There have been a couple of head-scratching middle-round selections the past two years, ones that were questionable at the time. Zach Gentry seemed like quite a project to take on in the fifth round at tight end, a position where the Steelers needed immediate help then, and could still use some now.
In 2020, it was the Anthony McFarland choice that was a surprise. His rookie year played out with him mostly standing on the sideline while injuries hampered a defense that could’ve benefited from grabbing an offball linebacker or even defensive lineman with that fourth-round pick.
Those are the anecdotes. But there’s also
a more analytical way of looking at it.
The NFL website FootballOutsiders.com researched this over the summer and calculated each team’s draft hit rate since 2010 based on a player’s career approximate value (per pro-football-reference, weighted for position) compared to teams’ average draft capital (i.e. drafting earlier in rounds as opposed to later) and determined that the Steelers have gotten more return on their picks than all but three teams (Seattle, Green Bay, Dallas).
If we narrow it to the past five years, they
do indeed drop quite a bit, to 14th (one spot behind Chicago, one ahead of New England).
It remains to be seen what transpires in free agency, but it’s time for some young players in the pipeline to step up, especially if the Steelers need to start cutting veterans. And if they don’t pan out, the next crop of draft picks will be nipping at their heels to make an impact.