The last spots go to ...
Projecting the winners — and losers — for final roster spots
Jason Mackey takes it upon himself to fill out the PIrates opening day roster.
BRADENTON, Fla. — It’s close to crunch time for the Pirates.
With just five spring training games left, there are plenty of important decisions to make before the club opens the 2021 season against the Cubs at Wrigley Field.
Who will be the starting shortstop and center fielder? What about backup catcher? How might the opening day lineup, bullpen and starting rotation look?
Don’t worry. We have you covered. Some of the decisions are easy, like Kevin Newman winning the shortstop gig. Others, such as which relievers to take north, aren’t.
The competitions
Newman is the slam dunk here, the result of a .727 batting average and 1.659 OPS this spring. The Pirates should tell Newman every day of the regular season that there’s an open competition for the starting shortstop job.
In center field, it has been less clear-cut. But it’s hard to see how Anthony Alford isn’t the guy on April 1.
Alford has hit .250 this spring with two home runs, a double and one incredible diving catch. He was an exciting acquisition last year and likely would’ve become the best option had he not tried to take down the PNC Park wall last season.
Behind Alford, the Pirates must choose between Dustin Fowler and Brian Goodwin. Fowler has hit .208 in 24 atbats, Goodwin .192 in 26 to go along with a team-high 12 strikeouts. Fowler is on the 40-man roster. Goodwin is not. Similarly, Fowler is out of options.
The solution: Keep Alford and Fowler with the big club, start Alford and ensure Fowler gets regular playing time to see what he can do.
As for the backup catcher, neither Michael Perez (.143) nor Tony Wolters (.167) has hit much of anything this spring, although Perez has a couple of doubles. Perez has thrown well — base-stealers are 0 for 3 against him — but he also has been charged with two errors.
Like the center field job, this could come down to roster constraints. Perez is on the 40-man, and Wolters is not. Stick with Perez. Keep Wolters as a taxi squad guy.
The lineup
Manager Derek Shelton would probably rather give out his social security number than even the tiniest kernel of information on whom he’s going to have hit where, but there are some trends worth noting.
Based on what Shelton has done this spring, the opening day lineup should look like this: Adam Frazier, second base; Ke’Bryan Hayes, third base; Bryan Reynolds, left field; Colin Moran, first base; Gregory Polanco, right field; Newman, shortstop; Alford, center field; Jacob Stallings, catcher; starting pitcher, TBA.
Hayes and Reynolds are easy; they’ve yet to hit anywhere else. Shelton could flip Moran and Polanco, although he hasn’t yet. As for Frazier and Newman, they’ve played together just twice this spring. Both times Shelton had Frazier leading off and Newman batting sixth.
The bench
Fairly easy here, assuming Todd Frazier’s lowerback tightness doesn’t linger. As long as he’s healthy, he’s been a bench guy/platoon partner with Moran at first.
The previous decisions here leave Fowler as the fourth outfielder and Perez as the backup catcher. Erik Gonzalez, who has hit .400 during a sneaky solid spring, gives them a solid defender at the middle-infield spots and also a versatile backup.
Given the need for more
pitching in a full season, it likely means the Pirates will break camp with a nine-man bullpen. That would give them a four-man bench and force Phillip Evans to start in the minors.
The starting rotation
Mitch Keller, Chad Kuhl, JT Brubaker and Tyler Anderson are easy. It gets hairy, though, for the fifth spot. The most logical candidates at this point are Trevor Cahill, Wil Crowe, Chase De Jong and Cody Ponce.
Long term, the Pirates probably want Cahill to fill this spot, but he has thrown just two innings and 17 pitches thus far. If they wanted to, and because of off days, the Pirates could avoid using a fifth starter until April 15.
De Jong (0.77 ERA in 11⅔ innings) has been solid but isn’t on the 40-man. Ponce made three starts last summer but has logged just two innings this spring.
Prediction: Make Cahill your fifth starter, but don’t actually start him until you have to.
The bullpen logjam
Someone here is going to wind up getting less than they’ve earned. Perhaps multiple relievers. And the Pirates could have a tough decision to make on Rule 5 pick Luis Oviedo.
As of now, it’s tough to see the following guys not make it: Richard Rodriguez, Chris Stratton, Michael Feliz, Kyle Crick, Geoff Hartlieb and Sam Howard.
Rodriguez and Stratton were two of their best relievers last season. Feliz and
Crick have major league deals — meaning the Pirates likely won’t want to pay them to pitch for Class AAA Indianapolis if they don’t have to.
Hartlieb was a key part of the bullpen last summer and hasn’t given up a run in spring training. He’s also their best option with men on base. Howard is the only lefthander on the 40-man roster. Beyond that? Good luck. Duane Underwood Jr. is out of options, and the Pirates gave up a prospect — albeit not a top 30 guy — to get him, meaning it’s unlikely they’d be willing to lose him for nothing.
Also, wouldn’t it make sense for them to have more than one left-hander? Chasen Shreve is an experienced pitcher who can give them multiple innings, and he’s been effective this spring. That’s eight.
The ninth spot, in this scenario, comes down to three guys: Oviedo, Clay Holmes and Mars product David Bednar.
Bednar has appeared in eight games, pitched 7⅓ innings, allowed two singles and no runs while striking out 14 and walking one.
Holmes, meanwhile, has been equally as good, allowing no runs over 7⅔ innings while regularly inducing weak contact with an improved sinker and terrific curveball.
Baseball-wise, there’s zero reason to keep Oviedo, a 21year-old who has not yet pitched above Class A. But for an organization looking to add prospects, especially on the pitching side, the business sidecould come into play.
If the Pirates don’t have Oviedo on the 26-man roster, they have to put him on outright waivers. Should he clear, he would have to be offered back to his original team (Indians) for $50,000. He could only be sent to the minors if they declined that option.
It’s hard to see for someone who was, at one point, a top10 prospect in Cleveland. It’s equally as difficult to see taking Oviedo — given his lack of experience — over guys like Holmes and Bednar.
In that scenario, it might actually be worth it to the Pirates to work out a trade with the Indians to acquire Oviedo’s full rights, allowing him to be optioned to the minor leagues.