Virus nixes record amount of graduates’ college plans
New national data indicates the COVID-19 pandemic contributed to a nearly 7% decline in high school students who enrolled in college in the fall immediately after graduating — a drop that is unprecedented, the survey’s authors said.
Students from low-income, high-poverty and high-minority high schools were more than twice as likely not to enroll in fall of 2020-21.
The National Student Clearinghouse Research Center’s update to its Benchmarks 2020 COVID- 19 Special Analysis shows the drop was less than an initial projected loss of nearly 22%, based partly on a process error. But even the revised numbers indicate the degree to which the pandemic — and resulting job impacts — have impeded student aspirations.
The numbers are likely to draw close scrutiny from college admissions and financial aid offices, whose staffs are banking on the upcoming fall moving toward normalcy as COVID-19 vaccinations increase.
Public and private schools — among them the University of Pittsburgh, Penn State and stateowned universities — have indicated they expect to bring students back for in-person classes in the fall, depending on virus trends.
In what could be seen as a sign of growing optimism, one Pittsburgh school, Duquesne
University, reported Friday that it had logged a record number of applications for the fall.
The overall decline of 6.8% reported by the center this academic year is based on the updated High School Benchmarks data. It covers roughly 860,000 graduates from nearly 3,500 high schools and their immediate fall enrollments in 87% of all postsecondary institutions that participate in the Clearinghouse, organizers said.
Officials with the center say it was four times the decline observed in fall 2019.
“The pandemic disproportionately affected graduates of low-income, highpoverty, and high-minority high schools, with their enrollments dropping more steeply than their more advantaged counterparts,” the organization said in a summary of the findings. “Enrollment declines were 2.3 times steeper for low-income high schools compared to higher-income schools.”
Urban and rural schools showed about the same rates of decline, the center noted.
“Community college enrollment dropped the most in low-income high schools while public, four-year enrollment was unaffected by the pandemic for high income high schools,” it added.
“The new data show large enrollment disparities by income and poverty levels of high schools during COVID19,” said Doug Shapiro, the center’s executive director.
“Students from disadvantaged schools are showing much higher rates of decline in college enrollment than their more advantaged counterparts. These findings further illustrate how the pandemic has reduced access to post-secondary education, particularly for students seeking more affordable options in the public sector.”
In recent months, experts said that as schools shuttered in spring 2020, access to counselors who could aid high school students with postsecondary education and career choices became less available — a change they say disadvantaged students from households with lower incomes and students whose parents did not attend college themselves.
Lost jobs also affected ability of many households to make college doable, while many students decided to take a year off rather than study remotely.
“Students generally receive support from high school counselors and community organizations to help them understand their college options and assist with the application and financial aid processes,” Mr. Shapiro wrote in a blog earlier this year. “We have seen huge drops in the FAFSA completion and college application numbers this year.”
He was referring to the Free Application for Federal Student Aid, considered the gateway to financial aid and one that became a cause of concern last year in Pennsylvania and elsewhere as fewer were completed.
Mr. Shapiro said schools are an important player in keeping students on track for postsecondary education.
The Herndon, Va.-based center is the research arm of the National Student Clearinghouse. The center works with higher education institutions, states, school districts, high schools and educational organizations to inform education leaders and policymakers.
Officials said the center collects data from nearly 3,600 postsecondary institutions, which represent 97% of the nation’s postsecondary enrollments in degreegranting institutions, as of 2018.