Hayes will wait to get to arbitration to try to maximize his earnings and options

You are 24. You have played in 24 big-league games. You have 85 atbats. Your team is offering you a guaranteed long-term contract worth millions. You would be set for life. Your kids and their kids would be set. You never dreamed there was so much money in the world.

You sign, right?

Ke’ Bryan Hayes didn’t. His decision was fascinating even if it couldn’t have been easy. Here’s how it works in baseball: A team generally has complete control three years of his major league career. It can assign him the minimum salary or slightly more each year.

Thepower switches to the playerin his fourth season whenhe becomes eligible for salaryarbitration. There are exceptions— you’ve heard of Super2 status? — when a player advances to arbitration after just two seasons. Hayes almost certainly will be a Super2, giving him potentially four cracks at arbitration. A player either wins in that processor wins bigger.

Then, after six years, a player becomes a free agent and can sell himself to the highest bidder. That is when he really can strike gold.

It’s believed the Pirates offered Hayes a deal that would buyout his arbitration years, perhaps even a year or two of his free-agent years. They are willing to spend more in the shortterm to save millions in the long term. They also get cost-certainty with Hayes. That is important to any small-market team that is trying to build.

Isit a gamble for a team to doa long-term contract with ayoung player? Sure. What if the player gets hurt? What if he underachieves? That’s whathappened with Jose Tabata.The Pirates gave him a six-year contract worth a guaranteed$14.75 million with three option years in August2011. He turned out to bea bust. The same thing is happening with Gregory Polanco.The Pirates signed himto a five-year, $35 million dealwith two option years in April2016. He has been a bust to this point, although he is expected to be in the starting line up in Chicago Thursday againstthe Cubs on opening day, batting fifth and playing right field.

Buta young player also can lose — relatively speaking— if he agrees to a multiyear deal. What if he becomes astar and outperforms his contract? That’s what happened with Andrew McCutchen.The Pirates signed him to a six-year, $51.5 million contract in March 2012.He went on to become a National League MVP. I know, he’s set for life. But he could have made tens of millions more if he had gone through arbitration and waited for free agency.

Hayes appears capable of being the Pirates’ next big thing. There are no guarantees, of course. Remember Josh Bell? Certainly, there areno guarantees with Hayes, son of former big leaguer Charlie Hayes. He long has been a terrific fielder at third base, but he didn’t hit morethan 10 home runs in any of his five minor league seasons.He hit .265 at Class AAA Indianapolis in 2019.

But Hayes looked like a surething last season when hemade his big-league debut Sept.1 against the Cubs at PNC Park. He went 2 for 5 with three runs scored, a doubleand a game-tying home run.He finished the year witha .376 batting average anda 1.124 OPS with 14 extrabase hits, including five homeruns. He has continued his hot hitting this spring. He is expected to bat second in the lineup.

With Bell gone to the Washington Nationals in a Christmas Eve trade, there is significant pressure on Hayes to be the new face of the franchise. Derek Shelton is convinced Hayes will stand upto that pressure and stare it down.

“Wejust want Key to be Key, ”Shelton said.

The Pirates were betting on Hayes being another McCutchen when they made him their long-term contract. They believe he’s going to be a star.

Hayes also is betting on Hayes being another McCutchen. That’s why he turned down the team’s offer.