6QUESTIONS
AS THE PIRATES LEAVE BRADENTON FOR THE START OF A NEW SEASON THURSDAY AGAINST THE CUBS AT WRIGLEY FIELD IN CHICAGO.
(But we’ll answer this pressing question right up front: Kevin Newman will not be hitting .606 when August rolls around.)
FORT MYERS, Fla. As the book closes on spring training and the Pirates’ focus shifts toward the regular season, plenty of questions remain.
Significant ones, too. Pittsburgh went 13-14-2 in its Grapefruit League schedule, a significant improvement over its three-win spring from a year ago. Will that translate into a better regular season? It’s way too early to tell. But there have been signs.
A couple of players — Bryan Reynolds, Kevin Newman and Adam Frazier — appear poised for bounce-back performances, and Pirates fans should enjoy a full season of Ke’Bryan Hayes.
The downside is that Steven Brault is hurt, Mitch Keller has struggled at various times this spring, and there are legitimate questions about depth at key positions.
As a way to take stock of what we’ve seen over six weeks or so of Florida baseball, let’s assess six key questions the Pirates will face.
1 Will the offensive success continue?
No, sadly, Newman won’t hit .606 (his best-in-baseball spring average) during the regular season, the same for what Frazier (.488 and 10 extra-base hits) and Hayes (.431 and 10) have done at the plate.
The Pirates averaged a home run per game (29 in 29), which is basically the same as their 2019 pace (163 in 162). They also began the day Tuesday leading the Grapefruit League in hits (234), tied for second in total bases (382) and tied for
third in runs (134).
Their offense isn’t predicated as much on putting the ball over the fence as much as it is putting pressure on the other team by getting men on base and running, but what happens when those numbers normalize?
“We’re not a 20- homers- onethrough-nine sort of lineup,” Newman said. “We’re going to have to get runners over and in when we can. I think we’ve got a pretty good idea of our identity when it comes to those things.”
2 Are other improved numbers real?
Ben Cherington gave an assessment of what he saw during spring training following Monday’s game and spoke of the team’s decreased walk rate. The Pirates general manager was accurate, too.
After finishing with MLB’s worst number of walks per nine innings in 2020 (4.37), their pitchers cut that down to 3.58 during spring training, the eighth-best mark among all teams.
“We came into camp focused on throwing more strikes, bringing our walks down,” Cherington said. “We’ve seen good — not perfect — progress there.”
They were also better at putting their ball in play. Their number of strikeouts (228) was the ninth lowest among MLB clubs.
As for that pressure component, the Pirates totaled 21 stolen bases, a number eclipsed by just seven MLB clubs. They will also need to do that over a full season, not just 29 games.
“There’s been good energy,” Cherington said. “There’s an opportunity now to take that work into the season, play meaningful games, and that will be both important for us and exciting to watch.”
3 Is it time to worry about Mitch Keller?
What Keller did this spring did not scream future ace.
The 24-year-old right-hander gave up 16 earned runs in 11.1 innings and had only three more strikeouts (11) than walks (8). His ERA (11.91) was the worst on the team.
But much the same that we shouldn’t put too much stock in some of those spring batting averages, arriving at any sort of definitive conclusion on Keller based on five spring starts is an equally foolish thing.
This much we do know: Given the Pirates’ situation — they’re thin on major league-caliber starters — they absolutely need Keller to be better than he was this spring.
“Mitch has really good stuff, and he worked hard this winter to hold the stuff that he had had at the end of last season, in terms of the velocity and the shape on his breaking balls,” Cherington said. “He worked hard to maintain that and sustain it into spring training. We think he has.
“So it’s really about dominating counts, being able to control counts and be in the strike zone and use that stuff to his advantage. So he’s working hard at it. It’s a combined effort with Mitch and our pitching coach group, obviously, and catchers. We’ve got a lot of faith in the effort he’s putting in and certainly a lot of faith the talent, and looking forward to seeing him continue to improve.”
4 Will the errors stop?
Another part of Cherington’s assessment involved the defense, which he actually felt was much improved during spring training.
The Pirates shifted their way to some success in 2020, but they tied for the MLB lead in errors committed, which short-circuited the process.
Their spring training performance largely matched what we saw last season, with the Pirates committing 25 errors in 29 games. Only a half-dozen clubs had more.
To help out the pitching staff and keep games competitive, the Pirates absolutely need to limit the miscues, make the plays they’re capable of making and not give opposing teams more 5 than they earn.
5 Where’s the position player depth?
As mentioned previously, the organizational depth right now is simply not a strength. We can talk about their improved minor league system ranking, one that has nudged its way into the top 10 around baseball, and that’s great. But the bulk of those guys aren’t exactly knocking on the door.
For example, what happens if someone gets hurt or isn’t hitting? They have some serviceable veterans in Wilmer Difo, Brian Goodwin and Tony Wolters, although those three hit a combined .234 this spring with just five extra-base hits and 25 strikeouts in 107 at-bats.
Cole Tucker underwhelmed in the shortstop competition. It seems like forever since Will Craig hit 23 home runs in 2019. Oneil Cruz is an exciting young talent, but the best thing for his long-term development isn’t a forced promotion because someone ahead of him isn’t hitting.
Given the churn of a 162-game season, the Pirates will experience injuries or dips in performance. They’ll need some surprises along the way.
6 Is their starting rotation good enough?
The Pirates arrived at spring training feeling moderately OK about a couple things. With Brault healthy and the expectation that Keller would take a couple sizable steps forward, their starting rotation was viewed as a potential strength.
Not so much anymore.
The group of Keller, Chad Kuhl, Tyler Anderson and JT Brubaker combined to make 19 starts during spring training, covering 52.1 innings and allowing 38 earned runs (6.54 ERA). They gave up 14 homers.
Obviously that isn’t going to cut it. But the Pirates’ ability to do anything about that is minimal. Trevor Cahill is not fully stretched out, two years removed from a 5.98 ERA and on the back nine of his career. The veteran righty should not be viewed as some sort of white horse.
Their next-best options are Wil Crowe, Miguel Yajure and Chase De Jong — guys who pitched well in spring but not exactly ones with much of an MLB track record.
Which is why, if the Pirates are going to be even remotely watchable in 2021, the current starting rotation simply has to be better, or things could get ugly quick.