Losing a lot only way to bring on a much brighter tomorrow

Pirates manager Derek Shelton is on the record saying his team will improve this season. That’s not exactly a bold prediction. The Pirates could improve and still lose 110 games. They had a winning percentage of .317 in the pandemic-shortened fiasco of 2020. That would translate to approximately 51-111 this season.

In other words, they could go 52-110 and “improve” by four percentage points. I’m guessing they’ll do better than that. But not by much, with the season set to begin Thursday at Wrigley Field.

Nothing general manager Ben Cherington did in the offseason would indicate the Pirates are interested in rocketing up the standings in 2021. Just the opposite. They seem perfectly content sleeping in the basement again. Their opening day payroll — not including change pulled from random seat cushions — is the second lowest in baseball and the team’s lowest in a full season since 2011 (it’s pegged at slightly

more than $43 million, according to Spotrac.com).

This ship is designed to sink, and sink it will.

Unless I’m missing something, that’s the idea here. And you know what? It is absolutely the right idea.

The Pirates need to keep their eyes on the prize, which is another top overall pick in 2022. Or at least one of the top picks, should Major League Baseball go to a lottery system.

The Pirates will never tell you they are tanking — they won’t even admit to “rebuilding” — so let’s just say they have put themselves in excellent position to lose a lot. It worked for others (Cubs, Astros, etc). It can work here. It was really Cherington’s only option when he took the job. The minor league system was thinner than Kent Tekulve in ’79. The major league talent base was middling, at best.

All of which does not mean the team on the field should give anything less than its best, obviously, and certainly doesn’t mean you should want to see future pieces fail. The four most important players on the team, from this vantage point, are Ke’Bryan Hayes, Bryan Reynolds, Mitch Keller and Kevin Newman. You should want to see them and other young players flourish.

But if just about anyone else — Colin Moran, Gregory Polanco, anyone named Frazier, Chad Kuhl, Trevor Cahill, Tyler Anderson, the entire bullpen, etc. — starts performing well, they should immediately be peddled for prospects. It’s the only way to go.

The Colorado Rockies, Texas Rangers, Baltimore Orioles, Detroit Tigers and others figure to be in the mix for that No. 1 pick. The Pirates need to lose and lose a lot. It’s best for the long-term future. Ask the Penguins.

Question is, just how many losses will this team take?

Vegas Insider has the Pirates’ over/under win total at 59.5, lowest in baseball. Baseball Prospectus has them at 61-101, with only the Rockies worse. FanGraphs has them at 66-96 and predicts no team from the NL Central to post a winning record (they have the Brewers winning it at 81-81).

ESPN has the Pirates at an MLB-worst 63-99. USA Today predicts 57-105. Sports Illustrated put the over/under at 58.5, Oddsshark.com at 59.5.

The William Hill sportsbook has the Pirates over/under at 58. I don’t know who William Hill is, but if he can pitch, the Pirates should put him in the rotation.

A man from CBS Sports named Mike Axisa had the most dire forecast of all in his “bold predictions” column.

First, he listed the worst records of the Expansion Era. Feel free to avert your eyes: • 1962 Mets: 40-120 (.250)

• 2003 Tigers: 43-119 (.265) • 2018 Orioles: 47-115 (.290) • 2019 Tigers: 47-114 (.292) • 1961 Phillies: 47-107 (.305) He then pegged the Pirates to lose “at least 116 games but not more than 118.”

That kind of sounds like 117.

I wouldn’t dismiss the idea, especially with the possibility that any veteran who’s good could be traded. But two factors have me thinking the Pirates will avoid that kind of historic implosion.

1. The division stinks. 2. Outside the division, the Pirates have 16 combined games against the Royals, Tigers and Rockies (oh my). Thirteen others are against Arizona or San Francisco, and it’s possible that last year’s NL Central champion Cubs will tank and trade everybody in sight if they get off to a rotten start.

In the end, the Pirates will make their manager a prophet. They will improve, all right, by a robust 29 percentage points.

And finish 56-106.