Ignore the hysterical commentary surrounding Biden’s agenda
According to conventional wisdom, the White House’s lagging negotiations with Republicans on the American Jobs Plan are evidence of failure at bipartisanship and an imminent collapse in talks just around the corner.
Meanwhile, progressives are arguing that President Joe Biden is “giving up” on his agenda in talking to Republicans with little to show for it. For them, it is a binary choice: Talk to Republicans or get through his progressive agenda.
And Republicans have started in with the ridiculous and insulting suggestion that Mr. Biden —a wonkish policy president with 36 years of experience in the Senate —- is not really in charge of his own negotiations. In that telling, the president is being led around by the nose by rigid staffers. One White House aide laughed out loud at the suggestion, pointing out that anyone on the campaign who ever tried to get Mr. Biden to do something he did not want to do would find it preposterous.
These takes bear little if any resemblance to reality. In fact, there are multiple signs Mr. Biden has coherent short- and long-term strategies and does not see his only options as achieving bipartisanship or passing his agenda. Let’s consider what is going on beyond the media’s impatient coverage.
First, the breathless, “Perils of Pauline” status of negotiations portrayed in the media do not mirror this White House’s mood. If on Monday some Republicans are publicly grousing about Mr. Biden’s $1.7 trillion counteroffer on the jobs bill, the administration’s experienced aides know that Republicans might come back with their own proposal the next day. Lo and behold, that is just what happened: Republicans on Tuesday hinted that a $1 trillion response would be forthcoming. There are ups and downs in talks, and one should not expect the White House to be easily discouraged by a tough day or even a tough week. Seasoned aides will caution that these things are “messy”; do not expect a straight path to a deal.
Second, the White House firmly believes that Mr. Biden gives up nothing by pursuing a bipartisan deal. If the talks go nowhere, he can still pursue reconciliation. If he gets half or three -fourths a loaf in negotiations, the remainder of the jobs bill along with his American Families Plan can get tossed into reconciliation in September —- or even earlier. Unlike the American Rescue Plan, there is less urgency to getting something done right away on his jobs bill. He has time to let this unfold.
Third, even if they fail to reach a deal, Mr. Biden perceives the cordial tone and increased exchanges with members of Congress to be beneficial in and of themselves. He may not get anywhere on the rescue plan, but he got a big bipartisan vote in favor of the anti-Asian hate crimes legislation last month. He may not yet have buy-in from Republicans on the infrastructure plan, but other legislation is moving on a bipartisan track through the Senate. Just a few days ago, Sen. Thomas Carper, D-Del., the chairman of the Environment and Public Works Committee, and the committee’s ranking Republican, Sen. Shelley Moore Capito of West Virginia, marked up a major, multiyear highway authorization bill, which may be one component of the overall jobs bill.
Likewise, bipartisan support is helping move forward a major bill to address research and development, semiconductor chip manufacturing and other components of the Biden agenda in the U.S. Innovation and Competition Act of 2021. CNBC reports:
“Assembled by Senate Majority Leader Charles E. Schumer, D-N.Y., the bill has united senators on both sides of the political aisle behind a bundle of provisions to boost American research and technology manufacturing deemed critical to U.S. economic and national security interests.
“The scope of the bill, the end result of input from at least six Senate committees, reflects the many fronts in the U.S.-China rivalry, as well as the urgency of a global semiconductor shortage that has clobbered automakers, home appliance manufacturers and phone producers.”
Whether those are part of the American Jobs Plan or part of this bipartisan vehicle, Mr. Biden is making progress on his “Build Back Better” plan. It is simply not in his interest to draw attention to bipartisan progress proceeding out of the limelight.
Fourth, even if talks fail, Republicans are making an impression on key Democrats who have until now resisted filibuster reform. After multiple instances of Republicans obstruction and ludicrous partisanship, Senate Democrats might eventually come to some unified position on breaking down the filibuster. It might be happening already.
On Tuesday, Democratic Sens. Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona practically begged Republicans to get on board with a commission to investigate the Jan. 6 Capitol riot. Should Republicans spurn their entreaties and filibuster the bill, Mr. Manchin and Ms. Sinema’s view of opportunities for “bipartisanship” may change considerably. As one Democratic insider puts it, what Republicans do now affects how receptive Mr. Manchin and Ms. Sinema may be down the road on filibuster reform or multiple uses of reconciliation.
Mr. Biden and his advisers understand they have a win-win proposition: If they reach bipartisan deals, then his promise of unity and comity pays off. If they don’t, they are helping shape public opinion and key Democrats’ receptivity to other legislative options. And the White House remains convinced that while it might have failed to reach a deal on one measure (the rescue plan), it will try again on the next item (the jobs plan) and the one after that. Pretty soon, voters will figure out which side has their interests at heart.