Upcoming weeks will determine much of roster
Six questions ahead of expansion draft, entry draft and free agency
The Penguins season came to a screeching halt May 26, when the New York Islanders bounced the East Division champs out of the playoffs in sixgames.
As of Saturday afternoon, nearly two months passed since that first-round exit without so much as a tweak to the coaching staff or the roster.
The reasons for the quiet offseason are two-fold. Part of that stand-pat approach reflects the faith that general manager Ron Hextall and president of hockey operations Brian Burke have in the roster they inherited and the coaching staff already assembled. The other key factor is the expansion draft, which Hextall said created a “gridlock”for trade talks.
But now, after a slow two months, NHL teams are in for ahectic two weeks.
The Penguins jump-started that process Saturday when they traded Jared McCann to theToronto Maple Leafs in exchange for prospect Filip Hallander and a 2023 seventhroundpick.
That will lead into Sunday, when the NHL is scheduled to revealevery team’s expansion draft protection list. Wednesday is the expansion draft, where Hextall anticipates the Penguins will lose a “pretty good player” to the Seattle Kraken. That’s followed by the NHL entry draft Friday and Saturday. Finally, free agencyopens at noon July 28.
Got all that? Good. Before it all begins, here are six questionsto set the stage.
• Whom will the Penguins losein expansion?
The Penguins can protect sevenforwards, three defensemen and one goalie. While debates have raged over whom the Penguins will — or should — protect, the bigger question iswhom will they lose?
In terms of forwards, Zach Aston-Reese is a good role player with stellar advanced metrics, which could make him appealing for a new team that plans to rely heavily on analytics. Jason Zucker has proven to be a respected leader in the dressing room whocould help build a culture in a new market, even if his $5.5 million cap hit might give Seattlepause.
One would think Teddy Blueger will be protected after he signed a two-year contract extension this week. But if he’s dangled, Seattle would have to think twice. Can the Penguins protect Brandon Tanev? If he’s available, Seattle would have to consider him,as well.
Defensively, will the Penguins leave Marcus Pettersson and/or Mike Matheson exposed, and would Seattle be OK taking on those long contracts?
• In the draft, will the Penguins add picks, stand pat or gofor win-now?
The Penguins enter the draft with only a secondround pick, fifth-round pick and three seventh-round picks. That’s not a lot of draft capital for a build-throughthe-draftGM.
It appears from the outside there are three approaches the club could take with the limitedresources they have.
First, they could simply just draft players when it’s their turn. While none would likely factor into the NHL roster for several seasons, these players could begin to restock a prospect pool that many analysts consider to be one of the thinnest in the league — if not thethinnest.
The second way to go is to add picks. That would likely mean shipping off a roster player or two in exchange for a pick. Taking this route, the
Penguins could free up muchneeded salary cap space to use in this window (more on that later), while also selecting prospects who can help win in thefuture.
The third approach would beto use the draft capital to acquire NHL roster players. That was a common Jim Rutherford tactic. But it seems unlikely given Hextall’s stated goal to keep one eye on the future. He kept the second-roundpick at the trade deadline intentionally and plansto use it.
• Can the Penguins create the salary cap space to sign their own free agents or a playeron the free market?
Defenseman Cody Ceci and forwards Freddy Gaudreau, Evan Rodrigues and Colton Sceviour are the Penguins who will be unrestricted free agentsat noon July 28.
The toughest decision revolves around Ceci. He signed with Pittsburgh last offseason at a time when his value was near a career low and teams around the league were struggling to get under the flat $81.5 million cap. The one-year, $1.25 million deal proved to be oneof the steals of free agency, as Ceci leapfrogged promising young defenseman John Marino to play in the Penguins’ top-four. Now, the veteran defenseman is likely in line for a seven-figure pay raise.
“We have interest in [Ceci],”Hextall said. “In terms of the cap, that’s another question. Right now we don’t have the space, so we’d have to createthe space.”
By moving McCann, the Penguins freed up about $3 million in salary cap space. They now have just under $4 million, according to CapFriendly, to sign their own free agents or compete for others on the open market. They could also do some salary-cap gymnastics by stashing Evgeni Malkin on longterm injured reserve through partsof the season.
Asfor the others, Gaudreau made the most of his opportunities
last year. He could be a low-cost depth option at center and at wing. But in a world where every penny needs to bepinched, can he fit?
• What league trends might influence the roster construction, and how much will the new front office put its fingerprintson this team?
Speed is the first word that would be used to describe virtually all of the players Rutherford acquired in his final 24 months on the job, including Tanev, Zucker, Matheson, KasperiKapanen and others.
Butnow there are new decision makers who could make some tweaks to the style and identityof the club. In the days afterthe season ended, Hextall talked about his desire to add size and toughness to the roster. This is in line with what Burke has said previously, when he explained there would be an evolution to the roster.
“It appears it’s gone back a little bit to the heavy game,” Hextall told the Post
-Gazette recently. “But you’ve got to be really careful looking at things in a vacuum. You’ve got to look at more than one year and the way things have progressed. Because next year it could be the opposite. It could be back to the skilled teams.
“In reality, you want to be that blend. You’ve got some skill but you’ve also got some grit and hard-charging players. To me, you kind of want thathybrid.”
• Is a trade coming, and could a goalie be part of that conversation?
Trade talks often heat up around the draft. Just look at last year, when the Penguins shipped two-time Cup winner Matt Murray to Ottawa. If the Penguins want to change the look and feel of the roster, create salary cap space or address needs, these next two weeks could be a time to do it.
One of the biggest questions surrounds the goalies. Following Tristan Jarry’s
disappointing postseason performance, the team has expressed confidence in their No. 1 netminder. But will they still look at options to solidify theposition?
“We’re comfortable with the two guys that we have,” Hextall said. “They did a real good job over the course of the season. But again, it’s like any other position. If we can upgrade our D or or center ice or our wingers, we’ll certainly look at everything that comes ourway.”
In summation, how much change could be coming this offseason?
“It’s so hard to predict,” Hextall said. “Other teams have needs, too. Do we match upcap-wise and need-wise?”
“I’m sure there will be some tweaks for us. But right now,I’m certainly not going to try and bet on how many tweaks because I really don’t know.”
After the next two weeks, we’ll begin to have some answers.