Dem race could be game of margins

Though the fundraising and influence advantages Conor Lamb and John Fetterman have might seem insurmountable for other Democratic candidates in Pennsylvania’s 2022 U.S. Senate race, the primary is very much a four-way contest that could change in an instant, strategists and political analysts agree.

There’s no doubt that Mr. Lamb, a U.S. congressman from Mt. Lebanon who’s won numerous tough elections in recent years, and Mr. Fetterman, Pennsylvania’s lieutenant governor and the former mayor of Braddock, have staying power that won’t subside before the May 17 primary.

But the fact that they share a

home base in Western Pennsylvania — and political lanes with other candidates — could complicate matters and make this a fight for the margins, the officials said. The race to succeed Sen. Pat Toomey, a Republican, could be won in areas outside of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, they stressed.

Mr. Lamb, a moderate, shares a “lane” with Val Arkoosh, chair of the Montgomery County Commissioners who’s vying to become the state’s first female U.S. senator, said Christopher Borick, director of Muhlenberg College’s Institute of Public Opinion.

And Mr. Fetterman, who arguably has the most recognizable name in the field and has run statewide campaigns before, is more politically comparable to Malcolm Kenyatta, the Philadelphia-based state lawmaker who would make history as Pennsylvania’s first Black and first openly gay senator, Mr. Borick added.

“I think it’s a fascinating field,” Mr. Borick said, ”becauseit really does fit so many of the elements of the contemporary Democratic electorate inthe commonwealth.”

Political analysis, at least for now, indicates it could be a game of margins and geography; the experts noted that in a four-person race, the winner might have to take only 26% to 30% of the vote.

Mike Mikus, a Democratic strategist in Pittsburgh who has worked on several winning campaigns, said with Mr. Fetterman and Mr. Lamb from the western end of the state and Mr. Kenyatta and Ms. Arkoosh from the east, the race could be determined in places such as Scranton, Bethlehem, Allentown, Harrisburg and Erie.

Mr. Mikus said it’s not farfetched to believe that Mr. Fetterman’s strength in Pittsburgh and Mr. Lamb’s in its suburbs and Mr. Kenyatta’s strength in Philadelphia and Ms. Arkoosh’s in its suburbs could all cancel out one another and push the race to the outskirts.

“If somebody can get a leg up in those smaller markets, they’ll probably pull this off,” Mr. Mikus said.

The candidates appear to be taking notice.

All four have already visited Erie, Jim Wertz, chairman of the Erie County Democratic Party, pointed out.

Ms. Arkoosh held a roundtable discussion with minority-owned business leaders there, Mr. Lamb stopped by on his Senate announcement tour, and Mr. Kenyatta and Mr. Fetterman attended the party’s summer picnic and softball tournament.

Mr. Wertz said places like Erie can play an oversized role in the primary because face time with voters is important and candidates can get a ton of direct contact there. The Erie Democrats don’t endorse in primaries, and Mr. Wertz said he’s told all four candidates that Erie is an open door.

“As much as they’d like to be here, we will find people in all corners of Erie County for them to meet with and get exposed to their campaigns,” Mr. Wertz said.

It’s not so easy to assume a political moderate will stand a better chance statewide, Mr. Wertz said, noting that he believes the general election will be about who can better mobilize the Democratic base. As such, forget the labels, he said.

“It seems like right now, the ‘progressive’ brand is something that is really just a tool of the right to try to frame, really, any Democratic candidate,“Mr. Wertz said, ”and I think the populist message of the progressives — in this race in particular — resonates broadly with some of whom I would call ‘mainstream’ Democrats as well as more liberal Democrats.”

Mr. Borick agreed that it will be important to do well in the Eries, Harrisburgs and Scrantons of Pennsylvania, and said Mr. Lamb is a “pretty good fit” because those are places where molds of Sen. Bob Casey, DPa., do well. But Mr. Fetterman’s brand crosses lines and he’s comfortable talking to white working class voters, Mr. Borick added.

It may come down to who inspires voters or who catches fire at the right time, Mr. Mikus said, insisting he believes the candidates agree on 90% of the issues. He cautioned political gurus of reading too far into early fundraising advantages, saying that all it takes for a candidate is one viral moment or positive shift in momentum and“the flood gates open.”

“That’s why there’s no incentive for a candidate who maybe hasn’t raised as much money now to get out,” Mr. Mikus said, adding that if candidates haven’t seen that spark in fundraising by March or so, they might have to re-examine their place in the race.

So far, the candidates have opted to tell voters about their differences with Republicans, not each other. Mr. Lamb and Mr. Fetterman, especially,have made the Jan. 6 Capitol riots and GOP attempts to overturn the 2020 election a key part of their messagingthus far.

Mr. Wertz said it’s the seminal issue in national politics right now. Mr. Borick said it’s clear from polling that anything insurrection-related unites Democrats almost uniformly.

“I think that it’s a very safe place to go in a Democratic primary,” Mr. Borick said, adding that the candidates might not even have to walk any of it back for the general election.

And the prospect of a candidate aligned with former President Donald Trump winning the seat should be enough to keep Democrats energized, the officials said.

So far, at least eight Republicans have entered the race, including Sean Parnell, of Ohio Township, an Army veteran and Trump supporter who lost in a bid for Congress last year against Mr.Lamb.