Weak Fred moves west, reducing risks for S. Fla.
Heavy rain still predicted for weekend
MIAMI — South Florida remained under a flood watch through late Sunday, and a tropical storm warning was in effect for the Florida Keys and Southwest Florida — but there was also a growing sense of relief across the region Friday about barely holding-it-together Tropical Depression Fred.
At 5 p.m. Friday, the National Hurricane Center nudged its projected track farther west as the struggling system, a ragged mess on satellite images, meandered along the coast of Cuba. While forecasters said it was likely to strengthen in the Gulf of Mexico, for South Florida it was expected to amount to no more than a soggy weekend.
In Key West, some tours and events were being canceled, but tourists out on the street said they had no plans of packing up.
“It’s just going to be more of an adventure,” Kristen Marciniec, 47, said from behind the wheel of a rented golf cart with Faith Morin, 37, both from Massachusetts. “We’ve talked to locals. They’re not too concerned.”
Fred, though disorganized, was dropping heavy rains across Cuba. With the shift west, forecasters dropped rainfall projections a bit, but heavy and widespread downpours were still expected — from 3 to 6 inches and up to 8 in spots — from late Friday through early Sunday. That much rain can be trouble for floodprone areas. The Florida Keys and west coast could see tropical-storm-level gusts, but the chances were low.
“It’s going to be wet weekend,” said Robert Molleda, a severe weather expert for the service in Miami.
As of the 5 p.m. advisory, Fred “remains disorganized,” with sustained winds of about 35 miles per hour while dousing parts of Cuba with heavy rain. It was moving west-northwest at 12 mph and should move near or across the Florida Keys on Saturday, according to the hurricane center. “Fred could become a tropical storm again tonight or Saturday,” according to the advisory.
The National Hurricane Center on Friday was also monitoring another tropical system that was forecast to become a tropical storm by Saturday morning, first passing over Hispaniola and curving northward toward the Bahamas — and toward Florida. The storm, which would be named Grace, would not finish its jaunt over the Dominican Republic and Haiti until Tuesday morning, according to a Friday afternoon forecast.
That system, while moving quickly, was expected to slow down, giving it time to strengthen in two to three days. “The system will be moving over warmer waters and toward a slightly more moist environment. Therefore, gradual strengthening is anticipated,” the hurricane center wrote in an analysis.
For now, governments, businesses and residents on Friday across Florida were preparing for an expected deluge from Fred.
Long-planned pool parties, camping trips and outdoor charity events got axed. Boaters bid adieu to their plans: Saturday’s Bonito Blast, a Treasure Coast fishing tournament that raises money for wounded veterans, was canceled.
Fred is forecast to move along or just north of eastern and central Cuba through Friday night. It should make a turn toward the northwest by Saturday though forecasters earlier in the day said the models were in disagreement over its track, some putting close to the Florida Gulf coast and others pushing it farther into east-central Gulf of Mexico. The hurricane center says the typically best-performing models show Fred being near or offshore of Florida’s west coast by Sunday.
Fred could see some strengthening before making landfall in the Florida Panhandle. The tropical storm should weaken as it moves inland and crawls up Florida’s west coast, the hurricane center says.