Economist: Census data supports Black flight
It’s likely that the decline in Pittsburgh’s Black population over the past decade is due to residents moving to other municipalities outside of the city in Allegheny County, a top regional economist at the University of Pittsburgh said Monday.
Pittsburgh lost about 10,700 Black residents from 2010 to 2020, a drop of more than 13%. Meanwhile, Allegheny County’s Black population grew by about 12,500, with 97 of its 130-plus municipalities seeing increases.
“I believe it’s a pretty strong indication that there’s a movement of Black population out of the city but staying close to the city,” said Chris Briem, an economist with the university’s Center for Social and Urban Research who focuses his research on economic and demographic forecasting in the Pittsburgh region, among other topics.
The exodus of Black residents from Pittsburgh has long been anticipated and was a main theme of the city’s Democratic primary for mayor that ended in incumbent Bill Peduto losing to state Rep. Ed Gainey, of LincolnLemington.
Mr. Gainey, on a fast track to becoming the city’s first Black mayor, based his campaign on an insistence that there are two Pittsburghs and that Black residents have been forced out over the past decade by gentrification and wealthy developers. Mr. Peduto acknowledged Black flight, too, but he said not all are leaving because of gentrification. Instead, he insisted they started to feel the impact of generational disinvestment and saw an opportunity for a better quality of life elsewhere.
“Recently released census results confirm shifts that we’ve been seeing on the ground in our neighborhoods for the last several years: Our city is becoming more diverse overall, but some communities of color, specifically Black Pittsburghers, are leaving the city as a result of displacement and gentrification,” Mr. Gainey said.
Now, there’s census data to support the concept of Black flight.
A closer look at the data released in last week’s U.S. census shows that of the 32 municipalities in Allegheny County with more than 10,000 residents as of 2020 — not including Pittsburgh — all but three saw their Black populations rise. In Penn Hills, the number of Black residents increased by about 14.5%, or 2,100 people. Monroeville also gained more than 1,000 new Black residents, a 32% increase from 2010. Also seeing sizable increases were Brentwood, Ross, Mt. Lebanon, North Versailles, Moon and Munhall.
In Pittsburgh, the “scale of the Black population decline is quite rapid and has probably accelerated in recent years,” Mr. Briem said, adding that the data confirms that the city’s characteristics are shifting and have been shifting over the past few decades.
Pittsburgh’s population declined by a few thousand but still stood above 300,000 total. The white population declined by about 6%, or by about 11,800 people. The city saw increases in its Asian population — of 47% — and its
Hispanic or Latino population, of about 67%.
It also gained about 10,300 residents who identified as multiracial — two or more races — which would theoretically be enough to offset the loss in Black population. But, Mr. Briem said, by looking at the multiracial breakdown of those who said they’re Black in combination with other races, it “just doesn’t change the story much at all.”
Mr. Briem said it’s clear through the data that Pittsburgh has gotten younger over the past 20 years, while other counties in Pennsylvania continue to get older.
Outside of Pittsburgh in other municipalities, Allegheny County’s population increased by about 30,000 and remained just below 1 million. Mr. Briem said ending the long period of decline in the county is significant, and that for local communities, seeing a stabilizing population can allow for greater planning.
County Executive Rich Fitzgeraldcredited the growth to an expansion of economic opportunities, from robotics and energy to arts and culture and eds and meds — influencing young people to stay instead of leaving town.
Of the larger municipalities in the county, nine recorded population increases of more than 10% over the past decade: Marshall, Pine, South Fayette, Jefferson Hills, Robinson, North Fayette, Franklin Park, Moon and Upper St. Clair. Marshall, which grew at the highest rate and surpassed the 10,000-resident mark as of this census, was bolstered by a 20% growth in its white population and an addition of about 1,300
Asian residents.
Thebiggest overall declines came in McKeesport, Munhall and Wilkinsburg. McKeesport lost 10% of its population since 2010.
In other ways, Allegheny County’s population appears to be diversifying. The number of white people declined by nearly 40,000. Meanwhile, it gained about 18,000 Asian residents, nearly 33,000 multiracial people and about 10,600 Hispanic or Latino residents.
Baldwin Borough had a more than 960% increase in its Asian population, of about 2,400 residents. South Fayette, Whitehall, Marshall and Franklin Park also gained more than 1,000 Asian residents.