Contract Bridge

Bridge is, first and foremost, a game of probabilities. Certain bids are made rather than other bids because they figure to produce the best results in the long run. A certain line of play is adopted because it has a greater chance of success than an alternative approach.

Today’s deal provides a case in point, North-South arrived at three notrump, and West led a heart. Declarer won and could count seven sure tricks — a spade, three hearts, two diamonds and a club.

A finesse was available in diamonds, and if West had the queen, nine tricks would be there for the taking. So South led the jack of diamonds at trick two and let it ride. East won with the queen and returned a heart, and declarer was now in deep trouble. He had no way of establishing a ninth trick before the opponents could collect five, and he finished down one.

In effect, South gave himself about a 50% chance — the probability that West had the diamond queen. But before attempting the diamond finesse, he should have asked himself whether another approach was available that might improve his chances. This might have led him to consider the possibility of trying to establish dummy’s clubs, a move that was, percentagewise, far better than the one he chose.

All that is needed to establish three extra club tricks is a 3-2 division of the missing clubs — a 68% probability. Furthermore, if the clubs fail to divide, he still has the diamond finesse in reserve, giving him better than an 80% chance of success all told.

In the actual deal, South would duck a club at trick two, win the presumed heart return and lead a club to the ace. When the suit broke normally, he would concede a club to West’s king and finish with 10 tricks without breaking a sweat.