2023 WPIAL girls basketball playoff forecast

Class 6A

Leading scorers: Gemma Walker Peters Township (20.0); Rylee Kalocay, Upper St. Clair (19.6); Natalie Wetzel (19.4); Madison Zavasky, Pine-Richland (19.1); Jasmine Timmerson, North Allegheny (16.8).

Top seeds: Upper St. Clair, No. 1, North Allegheny, No.2, Norwin, No. 3, Mt. Lebanon, No. 4.

Winner will be: Norwin. You could make a case for any of the top four teams to win it all and, yes, the Knights had losses to Upper St. Clair and North Allegheny in back-to-back road games. But Norwin is not going to have the start it did against Upper St. Clair earlier this season and won’t have to play North Allegheny on its home floor. Norwin’s defense has given up an average of just 33.2 ppg, best in the classification and tied for sixth in the WPIAL.

The scoop: There is no doubt that the classification is extremely balanced. … Upper St. Clair has a three-headed monster that could frighten any team with seniors Mia Brown and Kate Robbins complemented by up-andcoming sophomore sensation Rylee Kalocay, who was among the top scorers in the WPIAL this season. The Panthers have not won it all since 2008. … North Allegheny cannot be waved aside either, not with a talent like Pitt recruit Jasmine Timmerson leading the way. The Tigers have won four of the six titles in Class 6A since it was first introduced in 2016. … Mt. Lebanon is the defending champion.

Class 5A

Leading scorers: Meghan Murray, Hampton (20.0); Megan Marston, Plum (18.2); Emma Paul, Armstrong (17.8); Olivia Pepple, Penn-Trafford (17.4), Maddie Webber, South Fayette (17.3).

Top seeds: South Fayette, No. 1, Oakland Catholic, No. 2, McKeesport, No. 3, Trinity, No. 4.

Winner will be: South Fayette. The defending champion went out of its way to get battle-tested this season and prove that its upset of Chartiers Valley in last season’s final was no fluke. South Fayette can hit you from outside with Villanova recruit Maddie Webber or inside with 6-foot-3 Elon recruit Ava Leroux. The Lions also have signature victories against McKeesport, North Allegheny and Upper St. Clair this season and are riding a 14-game winning streak into the tournament.

The scoop: Oakland Catholic could have made a serious case for No. 1 after sweeping McKeesport last week, but probably got knocked down a peg when it dropped a postseason tune-up against North Catholic on Saturday that snapped its 17-game winning streak. They might be the one team that has the length to compete with South Fayette. … McKeesport may be without one of its top players in guard Avionna Menifee, who missed last week’s game against Oakland Catholic with a knee injury. If she can’t play, the onus will fall on junior Rachel Manfredo to carry more of the scoring burden. … Trinity has quietly put together a solid season and could make a deep run.

Class 4A

Leading scorers: Alena Fusetti, Blackhawk (18.1), Alayna Rocco, North Catholic (17.2); Emily Beck, West Mifflin (16.0); Kait Mankins, Greensburg Salem (14.9); b(13.9).

Top seeds: Blackhawk, No. 1, North Catholic, No. 2, Elizabeth Forward, No. 3, Quaker Valley, No. 4.

Winner will be: North Catholic. Let’s face it, this classification is a literal coin flip between the Trojanettes and Blackhawk, but the edge is going to go to North Catholic. The Trojanettes, the reigning Class 3A champions, have two Division I players in senior forward Dacia Lewandowski, who is heading to Akron, and Harvard-bound guard Alayna Rocco. The team proved it could win consistently without Lewandowski when she was out with an ankle injury midway through the season and that depth will come in handy down the stretch.

The scoop: Blackhawk is no slouch by any stretch. The defending champion has two outstanding players in junior Alena Fusetti and senior Quinn Borroni. About the only thing the Cougars did wrong was playing teams from District 10 as two of their three losses were to Kennedy Catholic and Cathedral Prep. The other was to Norwin. … Elizabeth Forward lost to Blackhawk in the semifinals last year and has a solid team, but it could be tough sledding for the Warriors if they don’t have a practice facility following the four-alarm fire at the school on Sunday. If nothing else, their resilience certainly will be tested.

Class 3A

Leading scorers: Tiffany Zelmore, Mount Pleasant (29.0); Mairan Haggerty, Neshannock (22.4); Mallory Daly, Seton LaSalle (21.7), Maggie Spell, Shady Side Academy (20.2); Karis Thomas, Shady Side Academy (17.8).

Top seeds: Shady Side Academy, No. 1, Laurel, No. 2, Neshannock, No. 3, Avonworth, No. 4.

Winner will be: Shady Side Academy. Bulldogs head coach Jonna Burke won her 500th game this season and should add a second WPIAL title to her resume to go along with the one she won while guiding her alma mater, Bethel Park, in 2013. The Bulldogs have freshman phenoms in Maggie Spell and Karis Thomas.

The scoop: Laurel and Neshannock battled it out and tied for the Section 1 title. Neshannock, the reigning Class 2A champion, spent about half the season trying to find its identity and finally have one, led by junior all-state forward Mairan Haggerty. The Lancers won 11 of their final 12 games after losing a section matchup to the Spartans. … Laurel will head into the postseason led by senior Regan Atkins, who missed the 2022 tournament with a torn anterior cruciate ligament. With her in the lineup, the Spartans have a bona fide scoring threat. … Apollo-Ridge allows only 32.5 ppg. … In what may be the anomaly of anomalies, the classification has three 500-game winners that have the potential to see each other at some point in the tournament. In addition to Burke, Apollo-Ridge’s Ray Bartha has more than 570 victories and elder stateswoman Luann Grybowski of Neshannock has 731.

Class 2A

Leading scorers: Iyanna Wade, Clairton (33.3); Shaye Bailey, Freedom (22.4); Sophia Zalar, Carmichaels, (17.9); Julz Mohrbacher, Freedom (17.6); Kaitlyn Nease, Burgettstown (17.2).

Top seeds: Shenango, No. 1, Freedom, No. 2, Serra Catholic, No. 3, Greensburg Central Catholic, No. 4.

Winner will be: Freedom. Even though the Bulldogs only tied Shenango for the Section 1 title, this is a balanced team that does everything right. Freedom has allowed only 38.0 ppg, has the second-highest scoring offense in the classification at 56.6 ppg and may have the best 1-2 punch in the WPIAL in senior Julz Mohrbacher and junior Shaye Bailey.

The scoop: To be fair, all of the top four teams have their plusses and minuses. Shenango has a solid lineup, led by seniors Kylee Rubin and Emilee Fedrizzi (15.0 ppg), but the Wildcats are relatively untested in the postseason and had not won even a section title since 1986 before this year. … Greensburg Central Catholic is always in the mix and has two outstanding players this season in junior Mya Morgan (15.9 ppg) and freshman Ericka Gribble (16.0 ppg). … Serra Catholic wasn’t even on the radar at the start of the season, yet the Eagles got to this point in the season with a stifling defense that limited its opponents to a WPIAL-low 27.9 ppg.

Class 1A

Leading scorers: Kelly Cleaver, Union (15.6); Katie Dryer, Avella (16.5); Emma Larkin, Geibel (23.1); Julie Spinelli, St. Joseph, 18.8.

Top seeds: Union, No. 1, Bishop Canevin, No. 2, Aquinas Academy, No. 3, Monessen, No. 4.

Winner will be: Union. If the Scotties win, they will be Union’s first-ever championship and, considering where the program was just a few years ago, it would be an extremely successful reclamation project. Since going 2-19 in 2018-19, Union has improved every year and, after a semifinals loss to Bishop Canevin, the finals are the next rung.

The scoop: St. Joseph getting dropped all the way to the No. 5 seed may have been the biggest surprise of the tournament. The Spartans were the Cinderella team last year, but to get into the finals, they’ll have to upset the top seed for the second consecutive year. … Defending champion Bishop Canevin has struggled at times and dropped the second of its two matches with Union just two weeks ago. That being said, the Crusaders are a tough out despite their record because of sophomore Rachel Boehm and senior Ashley Lippold. … Don’t sleep on Aquinas Academy, which has a win against St. Joseph and its only four section losses were to Union and Bishop Canevin. This was a surprise selection as the No. 3 seed as a third-place team in its section.

— Keith Barnes