No end in sight
U.S. should ramp-up aid, including fighter jets, but Ukraine must accept oversight and conditions for peace
The one-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on Friday comes with no end in sight to this bloody fight, no end to the killing, maiming and mutilation, or the horror and heartbreak of exile. The Russian army is mounting another offensive on the city of Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine, an important symbol of Ukrainian resistance. In the United States, however, public support for providing weapons and direct economic assistance to Ukraine is wavering.
President Joe Biden should prepare Americans for a long-term commitment to Ukraine. To do that, he needs to make clear what’s at stake. A Russian victory could put Americans on European battlefields. It would smash the principle of national sovereignty, galvanize authoritarian movements worldwide, and embolden Russian President Vladimir Putin to take, by force, whatever he wants.
On Monday, Mr. Biden made a good start by making a surprise visit to Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital, to reaffirm U.S. support, for “as long as it takes.” He pledged more military supplies and equipment, on top of the $500 billion in assistance the United States has already given. Additional support — military or otherwise — is essential, but it ought to come with accountability measures and certain conditions.
With pivotal battles raging in eastern Ukraine, the Western allies should ramp up, and speed up, military aid, including the F-16 fighter jets the Ukrainian military desperately wants. So far, Mr. Biden has said no to committing fighter jets, fearing escalating tensions between NATO and Russia. But the United States has already committed advanced battle tanks and air defense systems. Fighter jets would not cross a threshold of U.S. engagement in the war — as long as the jets are used only to defend Ukrainian territory, a commitment Ukraine must make.
Properly equipped, Ukraine’s military leaders believe they can win the war in a year. That might sound improbable, but Ukraine has already done the near-impossible. One year after the Russians invaded Kyiv on March 24, believing the Ukrainian government would almost instantly collapse, the capital city remains wholly under Ukrainian control.
No compromises
Despite the loss of 100,000 soldiers, Ukraine has held off, and beaten back, a foe with far superior firepower. Russia has lost an estimated 200,000 soldiers. Unlike the Russians, Ukrainians are fighting for their country on their own land. With thousands of Ukrainian civilians dead, the invasion has exacerbated an already deep-seated animus toward Russia and unleashed an uncompromising nationalism. Ukrainians will die before they surrender.
With no appetite for compromise on either side, peace negotiations have gone nowhere. Ukraine’s righteous thirst for independence, reparations and revenge, while invaluable on the battlefield, could become an obstacle to peace. On the other side, Mr. Putin remains indifferent to the suffering of his soldiers. He has crushed dissent. If anything, the war has helped Mr. Putin, politically, while feeding his ambitions to become a contemporary Peter the Great.
It could take decades to win the war, repair Ukraine’s economy and infrastructure, and resolve the crisis of 15 million Ukrainians who are either uprooted inside Ukraine or living as refugees outside the country. Refugees returning to Ukraine come home to rubble and a nation without jobs. Unemployment may be as high as 80%. Even those who work receive little or no pay, counting on a promise from companies to pay them when they can.
Accountability and conditions
The United States and its allies should brace for a long-term commitment to Ukraine. Given Ukraine’s history of rampant corruption, however, they should demand more accountability and oversight concerning how aid is used, ideally with an autonomous agency administered by donor countries.
As a condition for assistance, Ukraine should not give up on negotiating a peace settlement with Russia, no matter how unlikely it appears. Ending the slaughter of innocents might require putting some painful territorial concessions on the table: the Crimean Peninsula, which Russia annexed in 2014, or parts of the contested Donbas that were already controlled by pro-Russian separatists. That would be a hard pill for Ukraine to swallow, but the allies who have supported it should have some influence.
Finally, Ukraine must crack down on internal corruption and answer allegations of racism. To win the war and rebuild their country, Ukrainians will need a clean and competent government.
The Western allies should give Ukraine what it needs to win the war and survive as an independent, sovereign nation. That massive commitment, however, demands accountability and some influence in how this horrific war finally ends.