Third periods could cost Penguins a playoff spot
If he feels like it, Mike Sullivan has plenty of late-game lowlights to show his players as he looks to clean up the critical gaffes that have knocked the Penguins — the NHL’s worst third-period team since Christmas — out of playoff position.
But the coach also wants to make sure they know there are still things to like about their third-period play, even in Monday’s meltdown against the Islanders.
“It’s cost us lately, so it’s under the microscope right now in Pittsburgh,” Sullivan said Wednesday. “But we have an opportunity to get better in that area.”
Let’s start with the bad because it’s made all the difference.
Entering Wednesday, just seven teams had given up more third-period goals since Christmas. The Penguins’ 17 goals scored in 23 games ranked 30th amongst 32 teams, a major issue that is being overlooked. Add it all up, and the Penguins have the worst third-period goal differential in the NHL over the past two months.
“All I can say is that’s never good. And that’s probably the reason why we haven’t won as many games as we would have liked to win,” Bryan Rust said. “... We’ve had good stretches, but the miscues where you give up big plays at big moments, we’ve got to get rid of those.”
Ill-timed gambles and mental mistakes have been costly. In previous seasons, the Penguins with Sullivan behind the benchrarely lost when holding a third-period lead. But they have coughed up a late lead in six games since Christmas. They actually rebounded to wina couple of them.
It’s been a smorgasbord of screw-ups.
In Friday’s loss to the
Islanders, the late winner was scored off of a breakdown following a lost faceoff in the neutral zone. Monday, it was two bad defensive-zone turnovers and a soft goal surrendered by Tristan Jarry.
Sullivan said “game management” must improve, although it is perplexing that this late in the season it remains a problem for such an experienced squad.
“In the third period, it’s not like we’re under siege,” he said. “I think — and this is the conversation we’ve had with the players — it’s just critical moments or breakdowns at the wrong times, and they have ended up in the back of our net.”
Analytics back him up. Just don’t tell Jason Zucker. He will not want to hear it.
We asked our friends at Sportlogiq to pull some statistics since Christmas that compared how Pittsburgh fared in the first two periods versus the third.
Believe it or not, their turnover rate has actually been lower in the third period than it was in the first two. The Penguins are giving up significantly fewer rush chances and shots from the slot. And opponents have generated about one minute less offensive zone puck possession than the Penguins, too.
Pittsburgh has an overwhelming edge in expected goals in the third, as well.
Mere mention of that number after Wednesday’s practice had Zucker passionately but politely body-slamming the value of advanced statistics.
“We’ve got to bear down. We’ve got to be better. It’s as simple as that. You’ve got to win games. ... That’s why analytics are the worst thing that ever happened to the game,” Zucker said. “It’s like, ‘Yeah, you guys are doing great. You’re creating chances.’ Well, if you’re not winning games, it doesn’t matter.”
In Zucker’s eyes, Monday’s 4-2 loss to the Islanders was the perfect example of what has plagued the Penguins.
“We were all over them to start the third period,” Zucker said.
Teddy Blueger skated in alone on a breakaway with a chance to give them a 3-1 lead but was denied. Rust had another good look but couldn’t convert it.
“It seems like we have a fiveminute or six-minute span and then we let up for a second and they score two or three goals and all of the sudden we’re down and chasing again,” Zucker said. “Obviously, they got kind of a fluky goal.”
That was the one Bo Horvat snuck through Jarry from the right corner, after Pierre-Olivier Joseph had a chance to clear but gave the puck to Horvat. Less than two minutes later, Anders Lee got the winner after a Jarry turnover.
It was the fourth time they lost when leading after two periods, a league high.
Beyond making better decisions with the puck and paying more attention to detail when they don’t have it, there are a couple other areas for improvement.
One, their goalies can more frequently make the big save and bail them out. Since Christmas, they have at 5-on-5 allowed nearly five more goals than expected in the third period based on shot location and other factors, per Sportlogiq’s tracking. Presumably, having Jarry back in their crease will help with that.
Two, the Penguins can cash in more of their own scoring chances and give themselves a larger margin for error. For whatever reason, the Penguins have been putting pucks into the opposing goalie’s pads. Some regression there should propel them to more wins.
“Teams are capitalizing on our mistakes. They’re scoring that timely goal and we’re not,” Brian Dumoulin said.