UNCHECKED PROMISE

TEST OF A CHAMPION

Are the Penguins the flawed, inconsistent pretender most outsiders think they are? Or does a deep dive into the numbers reveal a potential sleeping giant?

One year ago, we combed through a bunch of stats in search of commonalities among every NHL champion since 2010 then narrowed the number of statistical indicators down to 13 categories. We called it our “Cup checklist.”

We have found that 10 of the past 13 title teams, including both of the back-to-back Penguins teams and the Avalanche last year, checked at least 11 boxes. Seven teams fit the bill last season, including the two Stanley Cup finalists.

So, while our methodology might not be perfect, it has been pretty predictive.

Does this Penguins team have a regular season statistical profile similar to recent winners? Let’s go category by category on our Cup checklist to find out.

✔ Possess a top-six offense or defense

Twelve of the past 13 Cup winners excelled on at least one side of the puck. The Avalanche had an elite offense last season. In 2020-21, the Lightning boasted one of the league’s stingiest defenses before repeating as champions.

he Penguins, despite all of their star power, have been mediocre offensively and defensively. They rank in the teens in both scoring and goals against.

✔ Goal differential at or above plus-25

Goal differential is a indicative stat over the course of an 82-game season. The Avalanche made it 11 of the past 13 Cup winners who hit that plus-25 differential (or the prorated equivalent). The Penguins? Yeah, they are currently in the red in goal differential heading into the weekend. So no checkmark here, either.

✔ Expected goals percentage over 52.5

This underlying statistic is probably the best one publicly available for determining whether a team drives play. Ten of the 13 winners had an xG% above 52.5 during the regular season, per Natural Stat Trick. Only one was below 50%. The Penguins as of Friday had an xG% of 53.7. This is the first box they check.

✔ Employ at least one 30-goal scorer

Only three teams did not have someone get 30 or more goals during the season. The Penguins have two already in Jake Guentzel and Sidney Crosby.

✔ Have at least five score 15 or more

Scoring depth may be even more important than a superstar sniper. Only one of the past 13 champions didn’t have at least five guys chip in with 15 goals or more. The Avalanche had eight last season. The 2021 Lightning had nine. Six Penguins have hit the 15-goal mark, making it three of five boxes so far.

✔ Get at least 30 from defensemen

Not every team is going to get 28 goals from one defenseman like the Avalanche did with Cale Makar last season. But there does appear to be a baseline level of production that contending teams need from their blue line. Twelve of 13 teams got at least 30 goals. The Blackhawks in 2015 were just one shy.

It’s going to be close, but the Penguins are on pace to fall short of the threshold. Led by Kris Letang and his 10 goals, they had 26 with 10 games left.

✔ Solid goals saved above expectation

Goals saved above expectation (GSAE) is a statistic from MoneyPuck that uses shot location and other variables to determine whether the goalie allowed more or fewer goals than the average NHL goalie in those circumstances. Eleven starters from our 13 title teams posted a GSAE per 60 minutes over 0.2.

You don’t need me to tell you that neither Penguins goalie is in the vicinity.

✔ Penalty kill success rate above 80%

Killing penalties? Kind of important. Eleven of the 13 Cup winners were above the 80% baseline. Last year’s Avalanche and your 2017 Penguins were just barely below. This year’s Penguins have killed just 79.4% of their penalties.

✔ Giveaway rate below eight per 60

Poor puck management is often a fatal flaw in the playoffs. Just three of the past 13 champions averaged eight or more giveaways per 60 minutes during the regular season. There is another area where the current Penguins club falls short: Only four teams have a higher giveaway rate than their 9.25 per 60.

✔

Faceoff win percentage above 50

There have been studies in recent years showing there is little correlation between faceoff success and winning hockey games. So it is interesting that all but two Cup teams won more than 50%. One exception was the 2017 Penguins.

Pittsburgh had won 52.3% of their draws as of Friday. That’s four of 10 boxes.

✔ Throw at least 20 hits per game

Hits are a stat that Mike Sullivan often scoffs at because if you are throwing a lot of hits, that means you aren’t possessing the puck as much as you would like. But history shows that having an element of physicality can be helpful.

Nine of the 13 champions threw at least 20 hits per game, including the Penguins in 2016 and 2017. It might surprise you that these Penguins, despite not rostering a single defenseman above 210 pounds, lead the league in hits.

✔ Tough to beat if leading after two

Being able to defend leads is an important trait — and one the Penguins do not possess. Ten of the 13 title teams won at least 88.9% of the games in which they led after two periods. Three were perfect..

The Penguins have the NHL’s oldest team this season with several Cup winners. But alarmingly their winning percentage when up after two is 71.9%.

✔ Finish the regular season strong

If it feels like most Cup winners head into the playoffs with momentum, the stats do back that up. All but two of the past 13 had a points percentage at or above .625 from Feb. 1 on. Pittsburgh is 11-11-1 since Feb. 1. Only 11 teams have a worse points percentage over that span.