Sell-off in banks halts stocks’ winning streak
The stock market halted a four-day rally amid a selloff in banks. Treasurys climbed as data on job openings bolstered bets the Federal Reserve is about to wrap up its tightening campaign.
A gauge of financial heavyweights like Wells Fargo and Citigroup sank 2%. Zions Bancorporation and First Republic Bank drove regional lenders down, slumping at least 4.8%. In his wide-ranging annual letter to shareholders, JPMorgan Chase’s CEO Jamie Dimon warned the U.S. banking crisis that sent markets careening last month will be felt for years.
“Investors should continue to be vigilant for signs of bank stress, and we expect market participants to react disproportionately to negative economic news,” said Gennadiy Goldberg, senior U.S. rates strategist at TD Securities.
Two-year yields slumped as much as 14 basis points to around 3.8%. Swap contracts referencing Fed meeting dates downgraded the odds of a quarter-point rate hike in May to just under 50%, from about 60%. The dollar fell.
Vacancies at U.S. employers dropped to the lowest since May 2021, the Labor Department’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS, showed. The data precedes Friday’s jobs report, which is currently forecast to show employers added nearly a quarter of a million workers in March. Economists are expecting the unemployment rate to hold at a historically low 3.6% and for average hourly earnings to rise firmly.
“It was just a matter of when, not if, we were going to see evidence of lessened job demand in this data point,” said Peter Boockvar, author of the Boock Report. “And at some point, the pace of firings will pick up as companies try to defend profit margins and respond to the slowing economic backdrop. I just don’t see the Fed hiking rates in May or any time thereafter in this cycle.”
Before Tuesday’s economic figures, Fed Governor Lisa Cook said that given the strength of the labor market, “we are still going to see inflation from that, but we’ve seen wage gains moderating quite a bit,” she said. That suggests the “disinflationary process” is underway, but “we’re not there yet.”
Investors wrapped up the first quarter by dumping the most U.S. stocks since October, according to a Bank of America analysis of its client flows.
Amid lingering concerns around banks, among other worries, the bank’s clients sold U.S. equities last week for the first time in five weeks, according to a note Tuesday from strategists led by Jill Carey Hall.
Head winds from the recent bank turbulence, an oil shock and slowing growth are poised to send stocks back toward their 2022 lows, according to JPMorgan strategist Marko Kolanovic.
“The Fed indicated no intention to cut interest rates this year, yet risk assets are exhibiting an unprecedented rally,” Mr. Kolanovic wrote. “We expect a reversal in risk sentiment and the market retesting last year’s low over the coming months.”
Elsewhere, Bitcoin trended toward the high end of its recent range of around $28,000, while Dogecoin continued to benefit from Elon Musk’s flirtation with the meme token.