Fewer young Americans plan to vote in 2024, Harvard poll says

Fewer voters under age 30 plan to vote in the upcoming presidential election than did at this point in the 2020 election cycle, and less than one-third of those who identify as independents definitely plan to participate, a newly released Harvard Youth Poll shows.

A potential decline in participation by young voters could hurt President Joe Biden next year in a hypothetical matchup against former President Donald Trump, given Mr. Biden draws more support from the demographic. But the poll, released by the Institute of Politics at Harvard Kennedy School on Tuesday, shows larger declines in planned participation among young Republicans and independents than young Democrats.

Overall, the number of Americans between 18 and 29 years old who “definitely” plan to vote for president decreased from 57% to 49% in a poll at a similar point in the 2020 election cycle.

Among Democrats in that demographic, that figure is now 66%, nearly identical to four years ago. Among Republicans, the figure is 56%, down 10 percentage points. And among independents, the current figure is 31% also a 10point drop.

The small percentage of independents who definitively plan to vote is particularly striking because more voters under age 30 identify as independents (38%) than Democrats (35%) or Republicans (26%).

The poll also shows pronounced declines in voting intention compared to the 2020 cycle among younger Blacks, Hispanics and women. The younger cohort of 18- to 24-yearolds is also less likely than participants ages 25-29 to be planning to vote, according to the poll.

Thirty- eight percent of Black voters in the new poll indicate they plan to vote compared to 50% in fall 2019. Forty percent of Hispanics in the new poll indicate they intend to cast a ballot, compared to 56% in fall 2019. And 47% of women polled this fall indicated they intend to vote, compared to 56% in fall 2019.

Young people played a critical role in helping elect Mr. Biden to the White House in 2020. Census survey data showed 53% of 18- to 29-yearolds voted in 2020, up nine points from 2016, which helped to fuel the country’s highest turnout in more than a century. But young voter turnout dropped in 2022 compared with the 2018 midterms, even though Democrats continued to win those who did vote by a wide margin.

Mr. Biden maintains a lead in the Harvard youth poll against Mr. Trump in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup. Adults under 30 favor Mr. Biden over Mr. Trump by 11 points — 41% compared to 30%.

Notably, nearly 70% of those who favor Mr. Biden over Mr. Trump say their vote is more in “opposition to Donald Trump becoming president again” than “support for President Biden and his policies.” The opposite holds for those who favor Mr. Trump, with 65% saying their vote is driven by loyalty.