Contract Bridge

Assume you’re declarer at six notrump and West leads the jack of clubs. You have only eight cashable winners and can immediately raise your total to 11 by establishing your diamonds, so you win the club with dummy’s king and lead a low diamond to your king, which holds.

You continue with the jack of diamonds, taken by East with the ace, and back comes the three of hearts, bringing you to a critical decision. Should you take the heart finesse, or should you go up with the ace and hope the opposing clubs are divided 3-3?

There is about a 50% chance that East was dealt the king of hearts, and only about a 36% chance of the clubs dividing 3- 3. This might lead you to conclude that the heart finesse offers a better chance to make the slam. However, the fact is that you will do better in the long run to reject the heart finesse.

This is because there is a third factor to consider, namely the possibility that the defender with the king of hearts might also have been dealt four or more clubs, in which case he is subject to a squeeze. This is not a negligible possibility; in fact, when added to the chance of a

3- 3 club division, it gives you better than a 60% chance to make the slam.

Accordingly, you should go up with the ace of hearts at trick four and cash all your spades and diamonds, reducing your hand to three cards consisting of the jack of hearts and Q- 4 of clubs. Dummy’s last three cards are the A- 6- 5 of clubs.

But note what has happened to poor West in the meantime. On the previous trick, he had to choose a discard from the king of hearts and 10- 9-7 of clubs, and whatever he selected, the rest of the tricks are yours.