RUSH JUDGMENT

Alex Nedeljkovic ranks as one of the team’s biggest surprises. One of the reasons can be found in his success in an NHL metric known as rush chances.

Alex Nedeljkovic has been a nice surprise for the Penguins. He helped push them back into the playoff picture by going 6-1-1 over his eight starts before an off night Thursday, when he got pulled for the first time all season. And he still ranks in the NHL’s top 20 goalies in goals saved above expected.

Not bad for a guy who was in the American Hockey League this time a year ago.

One of the biggest reasons for his resurgence is his improved performance against rush chances. Nedeljkovic is fifth in the NHL with a .902 save percentage on those plays, which Sportlogiq defines as any shot from the slot that occurs within five seconds after a zone entry. The league average is .836.

Nedeljkovic ranked well below the league average in save percentage off the rush in each of his two years in Detroit. Last season, he was at just .789.

Why is he suddenly thriving on these plays? Quickness and one of the league’s better glove hands certainly help. Calculated aggression is part of his game, too. But coach Mike Sullivan believes Nedeljkovic’s play-reading is what is allowing the goalie to stay one step ahead of dangerous rush chances.

Nedeljkovic, who turned 28 a few days ago, chalked that up to experience.

“Everybody’s got their own specific kind of way that they play the game now,” he said. “You do it enough and you pick up tendencies and things like that.”

Nedeljkovic noted that some teams are more reliant on rush offense than others. But he also pointed out that how the Penguins themselves are playing on any given night is more of a determinant for the types of chances he faces.

“Sometimes, you’re a little loose and maybe a little lackadaisical when it comes to taking care of the puck. And that just feeds their transition game,” he said. “Teams are going to take advantage of you when they come down on you 2-on-1 or 3-on-2. It’s obviously becoming a big part of the game now.”

Fortunately, Nedeljkovic often bails them out whenever there are breakdowns.

He has stopped eight of nine breakaways. One of those saves came in the home win over the Islanders on Dec. 31. Standing his ground outside the blue paint, he coolly gloved a Casey Cizikas wrister, then tossed the puck to a teammate, starting a counterattack that led to a rush goal for the Penguins.

“I play it a certain way because of my stature,” he said. “I try to be aggressive and hold my ice as long as I can. Don’t give them anything to shoot at and make them either hit a specific spot with a really good shot or go around me. And I trust myself to be able to beat them back to the post or steer them wide.”

Nedeljkovic, who at 6-feet and 208 pounds is one of the league’s smaller goalies, has also allowed only three goals on other types of odd-man rushes.

He has made several spectacular stops off the rush, like his sprawling toe save on Flyers forward Joel Farabee on Dec. 4. But ideally, he doesn’t have to strain much to keep the puck out. That’s where the play-reading comes in.

As soon as he sees the opposition coming toward him, Nedeljkovic must quickly process a lot of information in a short period. That all happens subconsciously. He said he’s at his best when he is reading and reacting, not thinking.

“The further out it develops, the more time you have to analyze and pick apart what’s going on,” Nedeljkovic said. “There’s a lot of stuff that goes into it.”

Take a 2-on-1 for example. Nedeljkovic first looks for “simple cues,” such as the handedness of both players. Is the guy without the puck a one-timer threat? Or is he on his strong side? If it’s the latter, Nedeljkovic will need to cover more ground on his push across should they attempt a backdoor pass.

“You also know you have a split second where he’s got to catch it and release,” he said. “It’s tough for them to get a lot on it when they have to onetime it off their strong side.”

Nedeljkovic also must take note of the speed of the attackers, especially the player without the puck. Is he crashing the net or getting into position for a one-timer? Are the two players widening out or skating in on him tighter together?

Even when the Penguins have numbers back against the rush, opponents can still present challenges. That’s actually when the bulk of rush chances occur.

“With the skill level and the creativity of players, it’s just not as simple anymore,” he said. “Now you often see an early pass and then a second pass and sometimes even a third pass backdoor, just kind of picking the D apart because it’s really hard for them to play it, too, right? It’s just a lot more complex.”

A good example is Brock Boeser’s first goal in Thursday’s loss. Canucks center Elias Pettersson pulled up atop the left circle, J.T. Miller made a beeline to the net and Boeser snuck behind the defense to tap in Pettersson’s pass.

Nedeljkovic couldn’t quite get across to stop that one. But overall this season, he has tracked those challenging plays well and made saves look routine.

Nedeljkovic shrugged off his stellar stats on rush chances, saying it’s just reflective of where his game and his mindset are overall here in the Pittsburgh.

“It just comes back to how I’m taking care of myself and worrying about the things I can control,” he said. “And it’s setting me up to make saves better.”